The March of the Cities

• Pages: 18-19

Page 18

THE coming year marks a dramatic milestone: the world's urban population will outstrip its rural population, albeit with big regional variations. The most urbanized region in the developing world is Latin America and the Caribbean, with 77 percent of the population, or 432 million people, living in cities. But Asia has the largest urban population-some 1.6 billion- although only 40 percent of its population is urbanized.

Wi thin the next year, the wor ld's urban population will surpass its rural population.

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Not surprisingly, most of the countries with the fastest-growing urban populations have been located mainly in Africa and Asia. Urban growth in these countries is often spearheaded by their largest city. For example, Gaborone, Botswana, has grown from a population of 18,000 in 1971 to more than 186,000 people today.

Over the past 25 years, the countries with the fastest-growing urban populations have been low-and middle-income countries.

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Until the mid-20th century, the mostly developed regions of North America and Europe hosted the majority share of the world's urban population. Since then, urban growth has shifted to developing regions. By 2030, Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to account for more than 80 percent of the world's urban population.

Developing regions now account for nearly 75 percent of the world's urban population.

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Overall, the world is no longer experiencing the rapid urban growth rates that were commonplace in the mid-20th century. In fact, the rate of urban growth has been declining over the past 50 years. Still, urbanization continues at a rapid pace in Africa and Asia-also the most populous regions of the world.

Growth rates of urban populations are expected to slow, but to remain 1-2 percent in most regions.

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Page 19

Dramatic growth in megacities (those with 10 million people or more) has not panned out as once anticipated...