Spectacular growth in major markets for fruit juices.

With total world trade in fruit and vegetable juices reaching almost US$4 billion in 1989 and an estimated $5 billion in 1990, the fruit joice industry has become one of the world's major agro-based businesses. The international fruit juice trade has shown spectacular growth over the last few decades, increasing threefold in value terms since 1980. The importance of this trade for developing countries is underlined by the fact that they account for about half of total world exports. Although one of them, Brazil, is by far the largest exporter, a number of other developing countries also supply fruit juices and pulp on the international market, and several additional ones have the potential to do so.

The fruit juice business will probably remain a growth industry for a considerable period of time. One reason is that annual per capita consumption of fruit juices and nectars is still fairly low in most markets, including several of the world's largest. Per capita intake is likely to go up in most of the industrialized countries, and possibly quite rapidly in some of them. Consumers are becoming more health conscious, a trend that started some years ago. In addition, product development, for instance new flavours, blends and packaging, by both bottlers and retail organizations, combined with more dynamic marketing, should help expand sales.

Increasing amounts of fruit huice raw material are being used in other foods and beverages, such as yogurt, yogurt drinks, health drinks, desserts and baby food, which should further stimulate demand.

The emerging markets of Eastern Europe may also influence significantly world trade in these products, although rapid consumption increases in those countries are unlikely. Of more immediate interest is the Japanese market, which is growing at a fast pace because of the elimination of import quotas. Similar developments are taking place in the Republic of Korea. Other nontraditional juice markets in Asia and elsewhere are also expected to expand, because of growing health awareness and higher living standards.

World demand is therefore forecast to expand strongly in the future. Developing countries are expected to be the main beneficiaries of this growth in overall terms, but high and fluctuating price levels for their juices (citrus and tropical) may in some cases result in increased demand for temperate-zone fruit and berry juices in some of the major markets. For example apple juice is already becoming more popular in some European markets, for instance Germany, than it was a few years ago. Exports of temperate-zone fruit and berry juices from East European countries may increase considerably in the future.

Although prospects appear to be very good for fruit juices from developing countries, the world markets is extremely competitive, and it may not always be technically advisable or economically feasible to start or expand production facilities for export. Investment decisions should be based on careful consideration of all relevant factors, for instance the infrastructure in the country concerned, the raw material supply and a realistic market forecast for the fruit juices, concentrates and pulp in question.

Major markets

World trade in fruit juices amounted to $3.9 billion in 1989. 1990 fugures are not yet available for all countries, but it is estimated that the total was close to $5 billion.

Since 1977 world trade in fruit juices has increased steadily, up from about $1 billion that year to a peak in 1984 of around $2.8 billion. After a slight decline in 1985, moderate growth followed in 1986 and new highs were reached in 1987 ($3.3 billion) and 1988 ($4.1 billion).

A small number of countries account for the major portion of fruit juice imports. The five leading markets for fruit and vegetable juices, which in 1989 were the United States (imports of $900 million), Germany ($637 million), United Kingdom ($386 million) Netherlands ($305 million) and France ($293 million), together purchased close to 65% of total world imports that year. Those next in line, in decreasing order of import values, were Canada ($250 million). Japan ($164 million), Belgium and Luxembourg ($120 million), Italy ($96 million), Saudi Arabia ($71 million), Sweden ($70 million), Austria ($68 million), Switzerland ($58 million), Spain ($51 million) and the Republic of Korea ($50 million).

The 11 import markets covered by the ITC survey are discussed below.

United States:

The United States is by far the world's largest import market for fruit juices and remained so over the 1985-89 period, although its share of the world total has fallen from 31% to 23% during the last five years. Imports have fluctuated considerably, reflecting price changes and wide variations in the level of domestic production of fruit juices, notably orange. In 1989 imports of fruit and vegetable juices amounted to $900 million...