Managing energy interdependency in the Western Mediterranean
| Author | Gonzalo Escribano Francés ? Enrique san Martín González |
| Position | Gonzalo Escribano Francés, Director, Energy Program, Real Instituto Elcano (Madrid) and Associate Professor (Profesor Titular) of Applied Economics, Spanish Open University (UNED, Madrid), <gescribano@rielcano.org>. Enrique San Martín González, Lecturer (Profesor Ayudante) of Applied Economics, Spanish Open University (UNED, Madrid), ... |
| Pages | 81-102 |
Paix et Securité Internationales
ISSN 2341-0868, Num. 2, janvier-décembre 2014, pp. 81-102
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25267/Paix_secur_ int.2014.i2.05 81
MANAGING ENERGY INTERDEPENDENCY
IN THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN
GONZALO ESCRIBANO FRANCÉS
ENRIQUE SAN MARTÍN GONZÁLEZ1
I. INTRODUCTION – II. WILL NORTH AFRICA FADE AWAY IN A SHIFTING
GLOBAL ENERGY LANDSCAPE? – III. NOT FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE:
THE GEOPOLITICAL DEEPENING OF A WIDER NORTH AFRICA – IV.
MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCY: WHAT CAN SOUTHERN EUROPE
DO? – V. CONCLUDING REMARKS: DEVELOPING A CREDIBLE ENERGY
NARRATIVE
ABSTRACT: Over the last few years, the unconventional energy revolution has profoundly changed,
if not the essence of global energy geopolitics, at least its narrative. This article analyses the impact
of such a geo-economic shift for Southern European countries. Despite this development, North
Africa will remain the main energy supplier for EU Mediterranean countries. As a consequence,
the main shared strategic challenge regarding energy security will be the geopolitical deepening
of a wider North Africa. To manage European energy interdependency with the Mediterranean
Southern shore in such a changing context a new, credible and more appealing energy narrative
for their southern energy partners should be developed. This article proposes some of the elements
that could be included to successfully increase energy cooperation in the Western Mediterranean.
KEY WORDS: Euromediterranean energy relations, energy security, unconventional energy
revolution, global energy geopolitics, North Africa, European Union.
LA GESTIÓN DE LA INTERDEPENDENCIA ENERGÉTICA EN EL MEDITERRÁNEO
OCCIDENTAL
RESUMEN: Durante los últimos años, la revolución energética no convencional ha cambiado
profundamente, si no la esencia de la geopolítica global de la energía, al menos su narrativa. Este
artículo analiza el impacto de este cambio geoeconómico para los países del sur de Europa. A su
pesar el Norte de África continuará siendo la principal fuente de suministro energético para los
países mediterráneos de la Unión Europea. En consecuencia, el mayor desafío estratégico común
para su seguridad energética consiste en un Norte de África más amplio y profundo. Para gestionar
la interdependencia energética europea con la orilla sur del Mediterráneo en un contexto cambiante
como el actual, debe elaborarse un nuevo discurso energético creíble y más atractivo para los socios
1 Gonzalo Escribano Francés, Director, Energy Program, Real Instituto Elcano (Madrid) and
Associate Professor (Profesor Titular) of Applied Economics, Spanish Open University (UNED,
Madrid), . Enrique San Martín González, Lecturer (Profesor Ayudante)
of Applied Economics, Spanish Open University (UNED, Madrid), . This
article updates previous versions of par t of the research conducted for the IEEE (Instituto Español de
Estudios Estratégicos, CESEDEN, Spain) and CEMISS (Centro Militare Di Studi Strategici, Italy) international
research project “Energy geopolitics in the Mediterranean Region”, whose original Spanish version
is available at .ieee.es/en/documentos/areas-tematicas/regiones-geopoliticas/2014/
DIEEET03-2014.html>.
MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCY IN THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN
Paix et Securité Internationales
ISSN 2341-0868, Num. 2, janvier-décembre 2014, pp. 81-102
82
meridionales. En este artículo se proponen algunos elementos que podrían ser incluidos en una
nueva narrativa para mejorar la cooperación energética en el Mediterráneo Occidental.
PALABRAS CLAVE: relaciones energéticas euromediterráneas, seguridad energética, revolución
energética no convencional, geopolítica energética global, Norte de África, Unión Europea.
LA GESTION DE L´INTERDÉPENDANCE ÉNERGÉTIQUE DANS LA MÉDITERRANÉE
OCCIDENTALE
RÉSUMÉ: Au cours des dernières années, si la révolution de l’énergie non conventionnelle n’a
pas profondément changé l’essence de la géopolitique mondiale de l’énergie, elle a transformé au
moins sa narrative. Cet article analyse l’impact de ce changement géo-économique pour les pays
de l’Europe du Sud. L’Afrique du Nord continuent d’être la principale source d’approvisionnement
en énergie pour les pays méditerranéens de l’Union Européenne. Par conséquent, le plus grand défi
stratégique commun pour sa sécurité énergétique est une Afrique du Nord plus large et approfondie
d’une perspective géopolitique. Pour gérer l’interdépendance énergétique européenne avec la rive
sud de la Méditerranée dans un contexte si changeant, un discours énergétique plus crédible et plus
attirant pour les partenaires du Sud doit être développée. Cet article propose quelques éléments
qui pourraient être inclus dans un nouveau récit sur la coopération énergétique en Méditerranée
occidentale.
MOTS CLÉS: relations énergétiques euro-méditerranéennes, sécurité énergétique, révolution non
conventionnelle, géopolitique de l’énergie, Afrique du Nord, Union Européenne.
I. INTRODUCTION
Energy geopolitics is by defi nition a quite static fi eld of strategic thinking.
The economic and political geography of Mediterranean energy interdependency
conform a natural energy space that has been rather stable over the last decades.
Stability refers here to the fact that threats and opportunities, complementarities and
confl icts, are projected in a highly stable analytical landscape: the geography of energ y
resources, which evolves in a setting of long-term investment projects and gradual
technological progress. Threats and confl icts arise in a recurrent manner and under
different form, but they tend to come from the same geographical origins. When
they emerge abruptly and unexpectedly, a failure in risk evaluation has been made; if
they affect the functioning of national or regional energy markets, it is because the
latter were ill-conceived to deal with energy security threats. However, over the last
few years, the unconventional revolution has profoundly changed, if not the essence
of global energy geopolitics, at least its narrative. It is true that energy geopolitics
has been historically prone to fashions whose announced long-term impacts never
materialise, at least no to the predicted extent. While these fashions receive a lot of
attention from policy-makers, structural trends continue to unfold.
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