Greener Europe

• Author: Laszlo Varro
• Position: the head of the Gas, Coal and Power Market Division at the International Energy Agency.

On a cold, dark afternoon in the United Kingdom in January 2013, a storm arrived from the North Sea. Windmills spun harder and harder, producing more and more energy—and then suddenly stopped as wind speed reached the level at which safety systems halt production. As a result, energy output went from the theoretical maximum to zero within hours.

But no one noticed. There were no headlines about London in the dark. The system responded as designed—first, by reducing, and then by rapidly increasing gas-fired power generation.

This smooth switch between energy sources did more than keep the lights on. It provided a glimpse of what policymakers envision as Europe’s lower-carbon energy future. It is a future filled with promise but also potholes as the continent seeks to reduce its 2050 carbon emissions to 80 to 95 percent less than its 1990 level. That means 80 percent or more of power generated in the European Union must come from wind, solar, and other noncarbon sources. An interim goal, proposed in January 2014 and under consideration by the European Commission, would reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent from their 1990 level by 2030.

Hurdles to greening

The goals are ambitious. And will be hard to achieve. Compared with the United States and China, Europe already has a low carbon profile. That precludes easy solutions to reducing carbon emissions.

In the United States, coal accounts for more than 40 percent of power generation; in China, more than 75 percent is coal based. Simple substitution of much cleaner burning natural gas for coal in either country results in a substantial reduction in carbon emissions (although China continues to add coal-generation capacity far more than other sources).

But in Europe coal accounts for only about 28 percent of electricity generation, while 38 percent comes from nuclear and hydro—both of which emit no carbon. Gas substitution, then, won’t help much in reducing carbon emissions in Europe. Even if all the coal-fired power generation in Europe were replaced with gas, the electricity sector would still emit over twice as much carbon dioxide as the EU target.

That means that the ambitious emission-reduction objectives can be met only with large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy sources. And it will have to be done even as Europe replaces the nuclear capacity installed in the 1960s and 1970s. With the future of nuclear generation problematic in Europe, much of the investment needed to meet the carbon...