Food Security, Climate Change and IP Rights

• Author: Alois Leidwein
• Position: Director for Research Coordination, Cooperation & Innovation, the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES)
• Pages: 2-4

JUNE 20 11

2

1. Technical paper by

Jelle Bru insma from

the Exper t Meeting on

How to F eed the Worl d

in 2050, FAO, Rome,

June 24-2 6, 2009

2. World Ag riculture:

towards 20 15/2030,

chapter 1 1, 2003, FAO

3. Cairns G roup, Eastern

Europe an d Russia

4. Nitrogen, phosphorus

and potas sium are

essential for food

production and quality.

Future scenarios

By 2050, the global population is expected to reach 8.9

billion1 and average per capita food consumption to rise

above 3,100 kcal per day, with increased consumption of

livestock products. This anticipated 40 percent increase

in global population will require a 70 percent increase in

agricultural productivity, with a further expansion in crop

production to support the increased demand for livestock

products. How can this be achieved?

The potential to bring new land into agricultural produc-

tion is limited. At present, some 1,600 million hectares

are under cultivation globally. By 2050, this is expected to

rise by just 5 percent (70 million hectares) with the bulk

of expansion likely to occur in sub-saharan Africa and

Latin America. A word of warning, however – introducing

changes in land use requires great caution to avoid irrepa-

rable damage to, or the collapse of, ecological systems.

Ninety percent of the required increase in global food

production will, therefore, need to come from intensied

farming practices and higher yields. But this needs to be

done in a sustainable way.

How to boost agricultural

production

Data on global crop yields show that, in some regions,

many varieties are producing only 30 to 35 percent of

what could be agro-ecol ogically attainable.2 Average

yields in countries with comparable climate and agricul-

tural production potential can dier by as much as 100

per cent, mainly because agricultural income is insucient

to nance inputs, such as fertilizer, plant protection and

infrastructure, needed for increased production.

Increased nancial resources for those inputs would boost

production relatively quickly, especially in countries with

developed agricultural structures.3 In many regions, how-

ever, even the higher farm-gate prices witnessed in 2008

and 2010 were insucient to stimulate increased agricul-

tural investment. Farm prices need to double in real terms

to ensure sustainable growth in agricultural production

for future food security. There is, however, no silver bullet

solution, and other policy approaches might be more

relevant for net food importing countries and those with

relatively underdeveloped agricultural sectors.

Farmers will increase production if it pays. Seventy percent

of the world’s poor are farmers or farm workers; rising

agricultural prices will help them escape poverty in the

medium term. An economically viable agricultural sector

where farmers benet from higher prices and start invest-

ing in agricultural services boosts the broader economy.

Steering an even course to minimize the volatility of

agricultural markets is a key challenge for agricultural

policy-makers. High prices resulting from food shortages

are a threat to social stability just as low market prices

resulting from oversupply are a threat to agriculture. Smart

and pragmatic solutions that are tailored to the particular

circumstances of a given country are essential to this task.

Innovating in the face

of nite resources and

climate change

Modern agriculture depends on fossil fuels for the energy

and fertilizers it uses. Given the finite nature of these

resources, the only way to increase yields is to enhance

eciency through innovation.

Finding eective alternatives to fossil fuels, for example, is

crucial. There is no getting around the fact that agriculture

will have to produce its own energy in the future. A key

challenge is how to enhance the energy eciency of

biofuels so they become an attractive alternative to fossil

fuels in high-input systems and to draft animals in low-

input or subsistence agricultural systems.

Greater eciency in the application and use of nitrogen

and phosphorous fertilizers,4 and ecient recycling of

wastes containing them are other key areas for innovation.

Food security,

CLIMATE CHANGE

AND IP RIGHTS

Realizin g our potential to prod uce enough food for th e world’s expandin g population will remain a major

challen ge in the future and on e in which intellectu al pro perty ( IP) rig hts wil l play a k ey role . Dr. Alois

Leidwei n, Direc tor for Resea rch Coordina tion, Cooper ation & Innov ation, the Au strian Agenc y for Health

and Foo d Safety (A GES) explo res the var ious dimen sions of th e food secu rity chall enge.