Coming of Age

• Author: Neil Ruiz, Luis Noe-Bustamante, and Nadya Saber
• Position: Prepared by NEIL RUIZ and LUIS NOE-BUSTAMANTE, Pew Research Center, and NADYA SABER, IMF, based on the Pew Research Center's analysis of the United Nations' 2019 World Population Prospects Report.
• Pages: 48-49

46 FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT | March 2020

PICTURE THIS

IN JUST 30 YEA RS, the world will look very di f‌ferent.

Since 1950, the global population has grown from

2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion. By 2050,

however, that number is projected to reach just

9.7 billion. is is because population growt h is

slowing—from about 1–2 percent to 0.5 percent

annually—l argely because of falling bir th rates and

aging populations, acc ording to the Pew Research

Center’s analysis of the United Nations’ World

Population Prospects 2019 report.

e report f‌inds that by 2050, global fert ility

is expected to be 2.2 bir ths per woman, down

from 2.5 today. is rate is inching closer to the

replacement rate of 2.1—the number of births per

woman needed to maintain a population’s size.

Meanwhile, the world’s median age is projected

to be 36 by 2050, up from the current age of 31.

Europe is projected to have the oldest median age, 47

years, in 2050. Surprising ly, Latin America a nd the

Caribbean, long known for its younger popul ation,

is expected to see the bigge st shift, with its median

age, currently 31, poised to increase to 41.

Many countries will face a shrinking population. For

Europe, this challenge may come sooner. e region

is projected to face the highest dependency ratio—the

number of people of nonworking age (over 65) com-

pared with those of working age—by 2050. At 75

percent, this ratio is higher than for any other region.

In contrast, Asia and Latin America and t he

Caribbean are ex pected to have the lowest depen-

dency ratio, 56 percent, in 2050. Not all populations

are shrinki ng or getting older, though. Africa—the

only region whose population is expected to grow

more than 1 percent a year—w ill have the youngest

median age, 25, by 2050.

Prepared by NEIL RUIZ and LUIS NOE-BUSTAMANTE, Pew

Research Center, and NADYA SABER, IMF, based on the Pew

Research Center’s analysis of the United Nations’ 2019 World

Population Prospects Report.

By 2050, as birth rates continue to drop and people live longer, the world’s population will change

COMING OF AGE

Youngest and oldest

Oh baby

The world’s median age is projected to be 36 years by 2050. Europe is expected to

be the oldest region (47 years) while Africa is the youngest (25 years).

Global fertility rates are expected to drop in 2050.

(number of live births per woman, total fertility rate)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Africa

Asia

Latin America and

the Caribbean

Oceania

Northern America

Europe

1950

2050

3.07

6.57

5.83

1.88

2.66

1.72

5.83

1.75

3.34

1.78

3.89

2.08

Number of live births per woman, total fertility rate

Africa World Oceania Asia Latin America Northern Europe

America

0

10

20

30

40

50

(median age, years)

As the world grows older and

birth rates continue to fall...