African growth: A new model for a post-COVID-19 world: More than ever, the creation of a single continental market remains a game changer.

• Author: Mene, Wamkele
• Position: SPECIAL REPORT

The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a new economic paradigm that is as unprecedented and radical as the Great Depression. Although the economic consequences of this global crisis are still unfolding, its impact on African economies is already alarming.

For the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and other multilateral bodies, mitigating the effects of the pandemic is not only the priority for today. It is also vital to salvage past gains and to maintain carefully laid plans for the future.

The AfCFTA is a far-reaching initiative, designed to foster industrial development and ensure Africa's prosperity. To this end, it seeks to create an institutional ecosystem to address the continent's marginal role in global value chains, its structural trade imbalance and its overreliance on bumpy commodity markets--namely, mineral resources and fossil fuels.

The global drop in industrial production means less demand for key African exports amid a collapse of international trade and a disproportionate decline in the terms of exchange. The pandemic has not only crippled the production sector; it has also ruined the travel and hospitality industry, which had flourished for two decades. The obliteration of services trade and the predicted sharp decline in international remittances due to the global recession are shaking the foundations of the prevalent model of growth, steered by the tertiary sector.

Calls for debt relief in international fora overshadow the perennial reality of Africa's marginal role in global supply chains, which creates a recurrent shortage of foreign exchange. This limits the continent's ability to absorb the fallout of a sharp downturn in the global economy. As the effects of the pandemic deepen and the crisis grows in magnitude, it is clear that a model of development that depends heavily on raw commodity exports has reached its limits.

Africa must step up production of drugs and medical supplies

The pandemic highlights the need for African Union members to manufacture more pharmaceuticals. Some countries, such as Egypt and Morocco, rapidly boosted production to meet demand. However, many African governments face limited access to essential drugs and health equipment due to shortages aggravated by restrictions that many countries imposed on exports of medical supplies (including personal protection equipment).

The AfCFTA is anchored on trade liberalization, even as global supply-chain disruption is likely to further...