Which Way the Euro?

• Position: Economics experts forecast the exchange rates between the dollar and euro

The International Economy asked a dozen or so global experts where the dollar/euro exchange rate will be two years from now -- and why? Here's the scored: Average of predictions: 0.96-1.10(*)

NAME EXCHANGE RATE Wayne Angell "0.80 - 0.95." Chief Economist & Senior Managing Director, Bear Stearns Jonathan Webb "0.80 - 0.95." Director, Proprietary Trading & Global Foreign Exchange, Credit Suisse First Boston, London David Berson "0.96 - 1.10." Vice President & Chief Economist, Fannie Mae Michael R. Englund "0.96 - 1.10." Chief Economist, Standard & Poor's Willem Kooyker "0.96 - 1.10." Chairman & CEO, Blenheim Investments, Inc. Holger Schmieding "0.96 - 1.10." Chief Economist Europe, Investment Banking, Merrill Lynch, London David Resler "0.96 - 1.10." Managing Director, The Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. Edward Yardeni "0.96 - 1.10." Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Alison Cottrell "1.05 - 1.20." Chief International Economist, PaineWebber International, London Kathleen Stephansen "1.10 - 1.15." Senior Vice President & Chief International Economist, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Lorenzo Codogno "1.11 - 1.25." Head of European Economic Research, Bank of America Robert Dederick "1.11 - 1.25." Economic Consultant, Northern Trust Company Paul DeRosa "1.11 - 1.25." President, Simpson Co., LLC Joachim Fels "1.11 - 1.25." Co-Head of Currency & European Economics, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, London Melvyn Krauss "1.11 - 1.25." Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University NAME REASONING Wayne Angell "Low unemployment rates for both labor Chief Economist & Senior and capital in the United States will Managing Director, keep the percentage rate of return on Bear Stearns real capital higher than in Euroland. Direct investment and fixed income financial flows continue to favor the United States. As German tax reform is phased in and other European countries follow the Germans, the euro will end its downward slide." Jonathan Webb "As the U.S. economy weakens Director, Proprietary temporarily, improving the growth Trading & Global Foreign differential for the Euro-zone, the Exchange, Credit Suisse euro should be well supported over the First Boston, London next year. However, over the two-year time horizon, the relative dynamism of the U.S. economic model will reassert the trend appreciation of the dollar." David Berson "As long as economic growth in the Vice President & Chief United States and Euroland is similar Economist, Fannie Mae for the next couple...