Big bad dreams: once again, TIE asked Washington's master catastrophist to lay out his most worrisome disaster scenarios. Here are the results.

• Author: Ledeen, Michael

We catastrophists dream of moments like this. If we were quoted on the Big Board, our market caps would be soaring and we'd be voting big dividends. Suddenly everyone is in the market for disaster forecasts, the worse the better. Chemical, Biological and Nuclear are awaited with dread in every major world capital, and pundits openly wonder why the other terrorist shoe has not yet dropped.

Take it easy, gentle reader. None of us is truly oracular. The best can only warn of possible horrors, so that our leaders--who are paid to protect against worst-case scenarios, and not to take de minimus measures--can prepare and act. As in the past, these little ventures into nightmare must begin with the historian's warning: the past is not a reliable guide to the future, and the ancient curses and afflictions remain the most perilous.

So what should we most dread in the next twelve months'? That is, aside from the looming horror of Boston repeating its unlikely victories in both the World Series and the Super Bowl?

MOTHER NATURE: THE ORIGINAL TERRORIST

You might think it was terrorism, but we often forget that the most devastating of all terrorists is Mother Nature. This has been a very good year for hurricanes, tornadoes, and typhoons, and here and there we see signs of renewed volcanic activity. Washington State is actively monitoring Mount St. Helens, and Italians worry about Etna. As you may have noticed, we are not very good at forecasting these catastrophes, even when they are fairly close by.

VIRUS VENEGEANCE

Along with natural catastrophe, the other great scourge of mankind is disease. We have done well in recent years, especially with AIDS, but the most lethal epidemic in the last century was ... the flu. So this year's shortage of flu vaccine might conceivably give the bugs a chance for a comeback. And don't forget mad cow disease. Since nobody knows its cause, it could crop up at any time. Meanwhile, the clock continues to tick on the marathon battle between the antibiotics and the bugs. Africa is the great incubator, since them, even more than in the industrial world, people stop taking medicine too soon, thereby giving the bugs the chance to adapt to the medicine and challenge us to come up with new defenses.

GREATEST HITS REPLAY

As we all know, human terrorism in the Middle East (and elsewhere, from Spain to Indonesia) has surged in the past twelve months, and there is no reason to expect a decline in the near future. Indeed, the...