'Fertilize the plant, not the soil' dispelling myths about fertilizers and plant nutrients.

• Author: Fresco, Louise O.

On the future of agriculture

In less than thirty years, we will reach a historical moment in the history of humankind when the era of land expansion, which started some six perhaps even seven thousand years ago with the beginning of agriculture, will be over forever, we know that the world population will grow and probably peak at 8 billion in 2030 This means that food production will need to increase by about 60 per cent. We also know that nearly all of that increase has to come from developing countries and from the intensification of agriculture, i.e. more yield per unit time and per unit area.

The demand for food will increase disproportionately to the increase in population. Rising incomes will mean a disproportionately higher demand for food to make up for malnutrition today and accommodate a shift in diets Apart from vegetables and fruits, the most remarkable shift will be towards higher consumption of animal products, partly from monogastrics--from pigs and poultry, This will mean increased production of feed. The cereal market for feed will grow fastest and it is the only one which will have at least a noticeable impact on world market prices.

Urbanization will continue. In 1950, two thirds of the world population lived in rural areas; in 2030 or even before that, two thirds of the world population will live in urban areas. This means lower labour availability in rural areas. It will undoubtedly imply new forms of mechanization. Labour use efficiency is another very clear trend; therefore, land use intensification, in all of its connotations, is one of the things we do not doubt

It is likely that agriculture will have other dimensions beyond food and fibre production, such as its role in carbon sequestration and in preserving landscapes, watersheds and biodiversity. There are exciting developments in the nutripharmaceutical and food quality sectors that may impact on future agriculture. These other dimensions are less clear, and I would put them more in a category of what we guess, rather than what we know Nevertheless, it is sure that we will look at agriculture as something beyond just producing calories per hectare in 2030.

On increasing efficiency in fertilizer use

There is tremendous scope for improvement in efficiencies as long as we remember what I was told when I was a student: "Don't fertilize the soil, fertilize the plant" Higher crop yields mean higher fertilizer use, but not proportionally. An entire system of supply, research, extension, quality control inputs, etc. ensures that farmers are realizing these efficiencies. In Asia and other parts of the world, these increases are not very strong, but they also exist, I hope that more efficient fertilizer use will match the growth in production--I say "hope" because there are some parts of the world where this hope, particularly in Africa, is not realized today.

In 1950, farmers applied only 17 million tonnes of mineral fertilizers. That was four times more than in 1900, but eight times less than today. When we look at northern Europe, fertilizer use has increased from about 45 kg/ha to 250 kg/ha. Wheat yield in France, for instance, increased every year from about 1,800 kg/ha in the 1950s to more than 7,000 kg/ha today. Again, we see overall patterns of efficiency in...