The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: How did the world get into this mess, and how do we get out of it?

• Author: White, William R.

When Tolstoy observed that "each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way," he meant that numerous requirements must be met simultaneously to ensure happiness. The failure to meet even one of them deals a fatal blow. Sadly, the world today suffers from fatal flaws, not just in one, but in all four of the major systems needed to ensure a happy and sustainable future for humanity: our economic system, our political system, our environmental system, and now, finally, our public health system. For those with a taste for Biblical allusions, we have been visited by the prophet Ezekiel's Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse--famine, war, death by beasts and, finally, plague. How did we get into this unsustainable state of affairs, and how can we get out of it? These four systems are all interdependent and each has changed for the worse in recent years. Our economic and environmental systems have been gravely weakened by a sharp rise in the stock of debt and greenhouse gases respectively. At the same time, the stability of the political system has been weakened by rising economic inequality and the popular sentiment that the economically powerful are using the political system to pursue their own objectives. In effect, as the underlying problems affecting the economic and environmental systems have worsened, the capacity of the political system to provide solutions has also weakened. Where we are is not a good place to be.

The fourth horseman, the Covid-19 pandemic, could easily trigger instability in each of the other three systems already weakened by preconditions. Echoing Tolstoy's observation, it will not be sufficient to cure any one of these conditions. We must cure them all. The challenge we face is existential and demands a "total reset" rather than incrementally "building back better."

The task is made all the harder by recognizing that cures for any one of these four problems might well increase instability in other systems. Tradeoffs between objectives will be essential, and they will not be easy to make given limitations in our knowledge and shortcomings in our political processes. Moreover, choices will be further complicated by the need to make tradeoffs over time, since policy measures often have different effects in the short run and the longer run.

This latter consideration is of particular importance. The first human imperative is always survival. Unfortunately, this implies a bias to near-term solutions without adequate consideration of...