The facts behind future Middle East instability.

• Author: Saghir, George
• Position: OFF THE NEWS

In the twenty-five years between 1980 and 2005, Yemen's total fertility (children per women) averaged 7.49. Iraq's was 5.67. Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt averaged 5.42, 5.19, and 4.25 respectively. In contrast, the United States and Western Europe averaged 1.96 and 1.56.

Over the same period, real economic growth in the Arab world was largely stagnant. When populations double every twenty-five years and real incomes stay constant, future revolutions are baked in the cake. Economic reforms like those offered by the political establishment lack the speed or vigor to match the droves of young men waiting to enter the region's labor force.

The region's official unemployment rates mask the severity of the problem. Close to 40 percent of the population is under the age of fourteen and they will soon join the labor force. Furthermore, women's labor participation rates are in the teens, the lowest in the world. This is also likely to increase. Consequently, real economic growth in the region must match Chinese...