The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0123
• Published date: 05 April 2023
• Date: 05 April 2023
• Pages: 353-370
• Subject Matter: Public policy & environmental management,Environmental issues,Climate change
• Author: Syed Shoyeb Hossain,Yongwei Cui,Huang Delin,Xinyuan Zhang

The economic influence of climate

change on Bangladesh agriculture:

application of a dynamic

computable general

equilibrium model

Syed Shoyeb Hossain

Department of Agricultural Economics, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Beijing, China

Yongwei Cui

Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering,

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), Beijing, China

Huang Delin

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Beijing, China, and

Xinyuan Zhang

Luohan Academy of Alibaba Group, Yuhang District, China

Abstract

Purpose –Evaluating the economic effects of climatechange is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in

developing countries.For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the

world to climatechange, with increasing temperatures and sea-levelrise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to

examine howclimate change impacts the economy in Bangladeshin the case of climate scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach –Using a dynamic computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model and

three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on

Bangladesh’s economyand agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model thatthe impacts of

climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by 3.25% and 3.70%,

respectively,and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

Findings –The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range

of 3.1% to 3.6% under the high climate scenario (highertemperatures and lower yields). A decrease in

agricultural output resultsin declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household incomefalls in

© Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang. Published by Emerald

Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence.

Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both

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JEL classification –C68, D24, N5

The authors would like to thank the project named “Open Laboratory of national agricultural

policy analysis and decision support system”and “Construction of Portal and Platform of

Agricultural Economic Theory, Policy Analysis and remote Scientific Research Environment”for the

grant (grant No. Y2018PT31, 2018; 161005201902–1, 2019).

Economic

influence of

climate change

353

Received23 October 2021

Revised7 February 2022

2 May2022

3June2022

6July2022

Accepted26 July 2022

InternationalJournal of Climate

ChangeStrategies and

Management

Vol.15 No. 3, 2023

pp. 353-370

EmeraldPublishing Limited

1756-8692

DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0123

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

https://www.emerald.com/insight/1756-8692.htm

all categories,although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of 3.1% to 3.4%.

On the other hand, consumption ofcommodities will fall by 0.11% to 0.13%, according to the findings.

Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by

0.059% and 0.098%in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Practical implications –As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will

impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger,

poverty, changing foodenvironment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care

environment.Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and politicalconcern

for BangladeshGovernment.

Originality/value –The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the

evidence generated here canprovide important information to policymakers and guide government policies

that contribute to national developmentand the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to

put more emphasison climate change issues and address potentialrisks in the following years.

Keywords Agriculture, Bangladesh, Climate change, Dynamic computable general equilibrium model,

Food security

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

Bangladesh is a country in northeastern South Asia with a total area of 1,47,570 square

kilometers (56,977 square miles) and often referred to as a riverine country, with one of the

world’s largest deltas, with a substantial portion of the delta lying below three meters

above sea level. Bangladesh’s population is expanding by 1.29% at an average annual

growth rate and will reach247 million by 2050 (Banerjee et al.,2015). Bangladesh is the most

vulnerable country to cyclonesand the sixth most vulnerable country to floods, according to

the United Nations Development Program. This country is primarily an agricultural

country, with agricultural workers accounting for the majority of the workforce (Hossain

et al., 2020). Due to global climate change, Bangladesh agriculture is extremely susceptible.

The agricultural sector, which provides important livelihood resources, is crucial in

determining Bangladesh’s poverty levels. Nearly half of Bangladeshis work in agriculture

either directly or indirectly, and rice is the single-most-important producing an agricultural

product. Agricultural sectors grew negatively due to climate change, and it is a significant

concern for Bangladesh’s development and food security (Banerjee et al.,2015). Bangladesh

has a subtropical monsoon climate; summeris hot and humid from March to May, followed

by the monsoon season from June to September and a dry winter from November to

February (Hossain et al.,2021). During the monsoon season, up to 66% of the nation might

be immersed, and cyclonesand storm surges happen regularly. Floods linked with cyclones

and other large coastal storms are projected to become more common and severe in the

future as a result of global climate changeand increased sea-level rise. Sea-level is increasing

alarmingly in the southern part of Bangladesh. The southern part of Bangladesh is more

vulnerable due to sea-level rise.Sea level rise has a huge socio-economic and environmental

impact, and it is expected to cause macroeconomic shocks in Bangladesh in the long run.

The negative effects of rising sea levels will limit the economy’s growth potential. At the

same time, rising sea levels will have a greater impact on coastal agricultural production

(Uzzama, 2014). Another big challengein Bangladesh’s agriculture is rising temperatures. A

study conducted by Hossain et al. (2020), found that the overall temperature tends to

increase by 1°C, 1.6°C, 2°C and 2.4°C in the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100, respectively.

Precipitation is also projected to increase in 2030, 2050 and 2070. Climate change is already

influencing population health, food, crop production, water security, ecosystems,

infrastructure and other areas in Bangladesh,and climate-related dangers will become more

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