The ‘Cuban Spring’ Fallacy: The Current Incarnation of a Persistent Narrative

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.13169/intejcubastud.5.2.0140
• Pages: 140-167
• Published date: 01 October 2013
• Date: 01 October 2013
• Author: Lana Wylie,Lisa Glidden
• Subject Matter: Arab Spring,Cuban Spring,communications,technology,social media

I J  C S 5.2 S 2013

THE ‘CUBAN SPRING’ FALLACY: THE CURRENT

INCARNATION OF A PERSISTENT NARRATIVE

Lana Wylie

McMaster University, Canada

Lisa Glidden

State University of New York – College at Oswego, USA

Abstract

This paper explores the role of communications technology in the U.S.-Cuban relationship.

It argues that the idea that anti-government dissidents will use the Internet, cell phones,

and social media to foment a popular uprising on the island, modelled after the ‘Arab

Spring’ is f‌lawed because it fails to take into account the uniqueness of the Cuban situation.

The paper then explores how it has become possible for this idea to have gained such

traction in certain discourses in the United States. In doing so, the paper considers the

history of paternalism and imperial hubris that has dominated U.S. policy toward Cuba,

with an emphasis on the relationship during the Castro era. The paper demonstrates

that current U.S. policy rests on fallacious assumptions about Cuba, the Cuban state and

the relationship between the Cuban state and the Cuban people. The belief in a ‘Cuban

Spring’ and in the idea that the United States could engender revolution in Cuba via

communications technology is part of this larger narrative.

Keywords: Arab Spring, Cuban Spring, communications, technology, social media

Introduction

When Republican primary candidate, Newt Gingrich, called for the United

States to provoke a ‘Cuban Spring’ in January 2012 he was echoing a popular

idea that technology, especially social media, could ignite revolution. This idea

was popularised by the revolutions in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt in the spring of

2011 and somewhat earlier by the use of digital media in the protests in Iran

after the 2009 election, known as the ‘Green Revolution’. Appeals for the United

States to help start similar uprisings in Cuba, now dubbed a ‘Cuban Spring’,

have been heard ever since. This paper will explore the role of communications

technology in the U.S.-Cuban relationship. In particular, it argues that the idea

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that anti-government dissidents will use the Internet, cell phones, and social

media to foment a popular uprising on the island, modelled after the ‘Arab

Spring’ is f‌lawed for a number of reasons. This belief rests on a popular though

problematic link between technology and revolution that has since been shown

to have been overblown even in the ‘Arab Spring’ cases. Although this idea makes

for interesting headlines it rests on a number of problematic assumptions about

Cuba and does not take into account the uniqueness of the Cuban situation,

in particular the state of communications technology in Cuba, the presence of

civil society, the strength of the opposition movement, and political opinion on

the island.

The paper then explores how it has become possible for this idea to have

gained such traction in certain discourses in the United States. In doing so, we

consider the history of paternalism and imperial hubris that has dominated

U.S. policy toward Cuba, with an emphasis on the relationship during the

Castro era. Since the earliest days of the Cuban Revolution, American policy

has been guided by the conviction that the Cuban state is near collapse and

that the Cuban people are poised to revolt against their government. The paper

demonstrates that current U.S. policy rests on similar assumptions about Cuba,

the Cuban state and the relationship between the Cuban state and the Cuban

people. The belief in a ‘Cuban Spring’ and in the idea that the United States

could engender revolution in Cuba via communications technology is part of

this larger narrative.

The ‘Cuban Spring’ Discourse

Even after the events of the Arab Spring itself lost their lustre the idea of a

‘Cuban Spring’ remained a recurrent theme in the United States. The concept of

a ‘Cuban Spring’ became part of the discourse of the Republican primaries in the

spring of 2012. Newt Gingrich told Floridians during the CNN debate,

I think it’s amazing that Barack Obama is worried about an Arab Spring, he’s worried

about Tunisia, he’s worried about Libya, he’s worried about Egypt, he’s worried about

Syria, and he cannot bring himself to look south and imagine a Cuban Spring. And I

would argue that we should have, as a stated explicit policy, that we want to facilitate

the transition from the dictatorship to freedom. We want to bring together every

non-military asset we have, exactly as President Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher

and Pope John Paul II did in Poland and in Eastern Europe (Gingrich 2012).

He criticised Obama to the FIU College Republicans, stating, ‘I don’t think it

occurs to a single person in the White House to look south and propose a Cuban

spring’, (Whitef‌ield and Roth 2012). Just prior to Pope Benedict XVI’s visit an

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