Strength of global economic recovery in doubt

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At the time of the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, global economic growth was sluggish, but the slowdown that had begun in mid-2000 appeared to be close to bottoming out. Some major countries-the United States, Japan, and Germany-were in or near recession, but some others-China, India, and Russia-continued to experience robust growth.

The terrorist attacks sparked new uncertainties, but the immediate economic effects of the attacks turned out to be moderate. By early 2002, it seemed that a global economic recovery, led by the United States, was under way. By mid-2002, however, weaknesses in emerging markets, as well as in mature equity markets, indicated increased risk aversion among investors. This sentiment, in turn, raised questions about the strength of the recovery. The financial difficulties experienced by some emerging market economies, particularly in Latin America...