Serious negotiations urged to prevent escalation of violence: 'full-scale civil war' and genocide possible.

• Position: Burundi

In a carefully worded resolution, the Security Council on 5 March encouraged Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to continue his consultations regarding contingency planning "both for the steps that might be taken to support a comprehensive dialogue and for a rapid humanitarian response in the event of widespread violence or a serious deterioration in the humanitarian situation" in Burundi. The action was taken as the death toll in the previous two weeks in north-western Burundi was widely reported to have risen, and after the Secretary-General on 16 February urged the Council to consider setting up a stand-by multinational force for rapid humanitarian intervention.

Declaring in resolution 1049 (1996) that it was "deeply disturbed that the persistence of the conflict has had a negative impact on the humanitarian situation and on the capacity of the international community to continue to assist the people of Burundi", the Council strongly condemned acts of violence against civilians, refugees and international aid personnel. It demanded that the parties concerned refrain from such violence or from seeking to destabilize the situation or to depose the Government, and called on them "to engage, as a matter of urgency, in serious negotiations and mutual accommodation."

The Council also asked the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Burundi Government, the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the European Union, Heads of State of the Great Lakes Region of Central Africa and Member States concerned, to intensify preparations for convening a regional conference for peace, security and development. A report on the possibility of establishing a UN radio station in the country "to promote reconciliation and dialogue and to relay constructive information" was also requested.

Burundi `prepared to confront any expeditionary corps'

While the resolution was adopted unanimously, statements made in the Council meeting reflected a mixed response. Burundi, invited to participate in the discussion, rejected the view that the country would descend into a "Rwanda-style genocide". Maintaining that "new phenomena" for peace had emerged and isolated those opposed to it, Burundi warned that its army was "completely prepared to confront any expeditionary corps, regardless of its humanitarian or military label."

Italy--speaking on behalf of the European Union, Poland, Hungary, the Slovak Republic, Malta, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Cyprus--said that "another potential humanitarian catastrophe in the region can be averted only if all the interested parties realize that there is no viable solution outside of dialogue". However, the resolution was "very clear" in warning the parties that the international community might be forced to "change its attitude" if there were acts of violence or attempts at destabilization. The United States asserted that "given the horrors of what happened in Rwanda, and the persistence of outrages in Burundi, we would fail in our responsibilities if we did not" plan for the contingency that widespread violence might resume. France emphasized that the Council "must ensure that its decisions do not run counter to the efforts of the Government", while China underlined that the internal affairs of a Member State should be settled by the people of that country.

Although repeated appeals for preventive action by the Secretary-General have helped keep worldwide attention focused on the situation in Burundi and the entire Great lakes region, they have also underscored the dilemma the crisis poses for the UN. The international community could not countenance the country becoming an ethnic killing field like that which scarred Rwanda in 1994. However, with Burundi's Government strongly objecting to the stationing of military forces in Zaire or any other neighbouring country with a view to rapid deployment in its territory, the Council and the Secretary-General have continued to discuss ways to contain a possible escalation of the violence without resorting to troop deployment.

Burundi, which borders Rwanda, Zaire and the United Republic of Tanzania, has been racked by a low-grade civil war that, according to some estimates, has been claiming as many as 30 lives every day. Since a coup attempt in October 1993 and ensuing massacres, thousands more Burundese have perished in inter-ethnic violence. The country's ethnic make-up is similar to Rwanda's: a relatively large Hutu majority and small Tutsi minority.

Forestalling genocide

Fearing that the rekindled tensions in strife-torn Burundi could escalate "into full-scale civil war, ethnic violence and genocide", the Secretary-General, in a 16 February report (S/1996/116), called on the Council to take "resolute action" and begin to consider the possibility of establishing...