U.S. Economic Forecasting: GE vs. The Fed.

• Position: Brief Article

NAME PREDICTION David Resler In response to your survey, I would opt to Chief Economist, attend the next GE Board meeting. GE is Nomura Securities arguably the most diversified corporation in International, Inc. the world and its board members include leaders from industries such as food products, paper, and auto parts that are less important to GE's operations. In contrast, the District Bank presidents do not seem to have better data on ALL businesses which can be gleaned from public sources. The exception, of course, is their information on the banks in their district, but that information would be generally less useful to forecasting than the up-to-the minute assessment one could hear at a GE Board meeting. Susan M. Phillips The Federal Reserve's twelve regional Dean, School of presidents. After listening to their comments Business & Public in FOMC meetings, I came to respect the breadth Management, George of their knowledge and critical analysis of Washington industrial, agricultural, financial and service University & former sectors, often coming from conversations with Federal Reserve CEO's or sector leaders, and surveys and Governor. regional studies. After such a session, I always felt I had a better understanding of the breadth, depth, and diversity of economic conditions affecting various parts of the country. Matthew Spiegel I would pick the Fed officials. Interest Professor of rates and the money supply have a lot more Finance, Yale to do with the overall economy than nearly School of anything else. Management. Robert Dederick Of the two, I'll take the Fed Executive VP & presidents--but Alan Chief Economist, Greenspan's private thoughts The Northern are my real choice. Trust Company. Richard N. Cooper For the near-term future direction of the U.S. Maurits C. Boas economy, I would prefer to listen to the Professor of private thoughts of the twelve regional International Federal Reserve presidents. They sit on Economics, the Open Market Committee, and their job, Harvard inter alia, is to track developments in University. the U.S. economy. They poll their respective regions and draw on competent staffs to form their judgments. General Electric's board meeting, while drawing on much practical experience, would be too parochial, too focused on GE's next strategic acquisitions and dispositions to rely on for an overview of the U.S. economy. Gary Hufbauer GE, of course. Both the Fed and GE Reginald Jones span the U.S. economy. Both the...