Obama's 500-day report card: recently, the world gave President Barack Obama grades for his first 100 days in office. What grades will he likely receive by mid-2010, after 500 days in office?

• Position: Barack Obama

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3. FRED BERGSTEN

Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics

I expect the U.S. economy to be recovering modestly with very stable prices in the middle of 2010, the 500-day mark for Obama. The government and Fed stimulus programs should be having their maximum impact at about that time. Hence, Obama should receive relatively high marks on growth and inflation.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator so it will probably still be rising or at best stabilizing. Obama will escape most of the blame, however, and there will be numerous stories of documented job creation from his stimulus efforts. Hence, a B is likely here, too.

Trade is the most problematic. Obama has adopted a firm policy stand against protectionism both domestically and in the G20 declaration at the London summit in early April. His implementation at home, however, for example on the Buy American provisions of the stimulus bill and subsequent legislation, is not yet convincing. Moreover, he may continue to dither in adopting a positive trade agenda and thus leave a dangerous vacuum into which additional backsliding can easily occur.

I am less sanguine what the report card may show at one thousand days. We could be suffering a double-dip turndown by then if private demand fails to pick up the slack from waning public stimulus. Inflation could be rising as a result of huge budget deficits and renewed increases in world commodity prices. Unemployment will need to be coming down steadily and substantially to garner a good mark at that time. We will clearly need forward movement on trade to contribute to global expansion. The policy challenges will thus remain, and perhaps intensify, even if the encouraging progress that I expect over the next year does in fact take place.

* OBAMA'S FIRST 500 DAYS * Inflation GDP Growth A B Employment Trade C D [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

WILLIAM E. BROCK

Former U.S. Trade Representative, and former U.S. Secretary of Labor

I know of no individual who has the gift of prophecy, and thus I trust the following opinions will be read with considerable caution.

On inflation, I'd give a D. The prospect of a significant increase in inflation is high, in large part due to the massive infusion of governmental stimulus funds, but perhaps equally from the massive but largely underreported Federal Reserve infusions of newly created money. These inflationary pressures may be somewhat ameliorated, due to the fact that the dollar continues as the world's reserve currency. Nonetheless, they will be much in evidence, and very painful, well before the end of 2010.

Obama earns a C for GDP growth. It is not unreasonable to anticipate that this inflation will be accompanied by far higher interest rates, leading to the much-feared "stagflation"--economic stagnation coupled with inflation. Thus I fear that GDP growth will in real terms be negative, or at best slightly positive from the continuing impact of governmental expenditures. I do not believe that the serious psychological impact of the recession will have fully abated, leading to greater rates of savings and lower levels of private consumption for a considerable time, especially among middle- and lower-income families.

His grade for employment is a C. The expectations of modest improvements in employment will create a sense of economic improvement, despite the fact that much of the gains will come from governmental actions. These are clearly not sustainable beyond the next two or at most three years without the prospect of even more serious inflation.

On trade, I'd give Obama a D. Trade, in stark contrast with the past half century, may continue to be a drag on the world economy--and on the United States specifically--as nations struggle to restore capital formation and consumer confidence. These efforts, and global trade specifically, will be hampered by overt as well as covert protectionism.

* OBAMA'S FIRST 500 DAYS * Inflation GDP Growth D C Employment Trade C D [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

ALAN S. BLINDER

Department of Economics, Princeton University, and former Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

* OBAMA'S FIRST 500 DAYS * Inflation GDP Growth A B Employment Trade B B [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

BENN STEIL

Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations

Given the monetary and fiscal adrenaline that will have been pumped into the U.S. economy over the course of 2009, I would expect to see some very modest GDP growth by spring 2010, even as the employment figures remain poor. The big question marks are longer term. With no signs of deficit control on the horizon, Treasury prices and the dollar should all take a beating in the coming year, and inflation will not be far behind. On the trade front, an end to all talk of re-opening NAFTA is the best that can be hoped for. Unfortunately, the economic crisis, which has already gone through several distinct phases since 2007, has a number of phases left to it, and will persist well beyond President Obama's first 500 days.

* OBAMA'S FIRST 500 DAYS * Inflation GDP Growth C B- Employment Trade C D RUDOLPH G. PENNER

Institute Fellow, Urban Institute, and Former Director, Congressional Budget Office

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I gave the President--and by implication the Federal Reserve--a B for GDP growth and employment because I was an easy grader when I was a professor. By mid-2010 the recession will have passed its trough, partly because of the natural inclination of the economy to heal itself and partly because of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The former is likely to have most of its impact after the recovery is underway. The ordinary voter is likely to award a lower grade, because GDP and employment will still be far below previous peaks and the public will have expected more from this activist president.

Why provide only a B if the economy is well on its way to recovery? Fiscal policy has been far looser and with a later impact than was necessary. The huge deficits, which continue indefinitely, will crowd out private investment and increase our liabilities to foreigners once the recovery matures, thus reducing long-run growth in American incomes. At worst, the flood of debt will cause a disruption in international financial markets that will threaten a double-dip recession.

I provide an A minus for inflation, because it is unlikely that anything bad will happen within 500 days. But if the Fed extracts bank reserves too slowly, price increases will accelerate later, or if they act too fast the marks for employment and growth will fall...