One Year Later: The impact of the Russian conflict with Ukraine on Africa.

In today's interconnected world, shots fired in one corner of the globe create ripple effects in other, seemingly far, places. One year since the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine, African countries, although physically miles away, have not been spared its aftershocks.

While much can be said about the political and policy intricacies surrounding the conflict, the real and palpable impact on the lives of many ordinary Africans is equally unsettling.

Against a backdrop of soaring food and energy prices and the shrinking basket of global economic cooperation financing, African countries are also contending with how to position themselves within the significant shifts in international energy policies, even as they are approached by various partners who are also grappling with the energy access implications for their own citizens.

In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50 per cent of their wheat products from the Russian Federation or Ukraine. Six of these countries (Eritrea, Egypt, Benin, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania) imported over 70 per cent of their wheat from the region.

The global energy crisis

The 2022 World Economic Outlook paints a stark picture of the state of global energy, stating that it is 'delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity.'

This strain comes as African economies are still trying to emerge from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, for which they did not have enough resources to cushion themselves.

By mid- 2022, global energy prices soared to a three-decade high, and natural gas price costs edged over 300 Euros per megawatt-hour. These high costs for natural gas have come down significantly by February 2023, to less than $100 per megawatt-hour, owing to relatively warm winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere.

European governments largely shielded their citizens from these price shocks by spending over $640 billion on energy subsidies, regulating retail prices, and supporting businesses. African governments, on the other hand, did not have the fiscal space to protect consumers with such wide-scale, much-needed measures to counter rising energy prices.

In addition to pressures from fluctuations in exchange rates, and high commodities prices, inflation reached double digits in 40 per cent of African countries. Moreover, seven African countries are in debt distress as of January 2023, and 14 more are at high risk of debt distress, which makes them unable to implement meaningful...