LDP R.I.P.?

• Author: Katz, Richard

Clever tactics may keep Japan's Liberal Democratic Party in power a while longer, but its days are numbered.

No matter how well entrenched political regimes may seem, once they lose their raison d'etre, they sooner or later lose their etre. So it was with dictatorships like the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and the authoritarian "developmental states" of South Korea and Taiwan. So it has been with one-party democracies like Italy under the Christian Democrats and Sweden under the Labor Party. And so it will be with Japan's one-party democracy under the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP).

In all likelihood, the death throes of LDP rule will continue for several

more years, passing through several episodes of political realignment. There is not yet a group of opposition parties capable of displacing the LDP in an election. The most likely scenario for eventual LDP downfall is another split or series of splits -- like the one that temporarily dethroned it in 1993 -- as conflicts of interest among the LDP's assorted constituencies become more severe.

That is not a near-term prospect. The LDP should come out of this year's elections for the Lower House of the Diet, the house that names the prime minister, still holding onto power via a coalition government. Prior to Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's stroke, the LDP was widely expected to lose as many as twenty or thirty seats. It's not Clear how much the sympathy factor will alter that prospect. In any case, even if the LDP does lose its own majority, the coalition as a whole is expected to retain a majority.

These short-term twists and turns affect only the timing and form of Japan's political transition -- not the ultimate destination. Japan's political system is an anachronism. Japan is the only advanced industrial country that remains a one-party state: The same party (including the LDP's predecessor parties) has ruled for all but two of the fifty-five years since the end of World War Two.

In the past, LDP rule served Japan well. It kept Japan in the Western camp during the Cold War and it created the political coalition underlying the economic miracle. Today, however, the LDP stands in the way of the political-economic reform required to restore economic vibrancy. If Japan hopes to reform, it must move to genuinely competitive politics where parties alternate in power. Ultimately, Japan's economic crisis is a crisis of governance -- in both companies and government. It cannot be cured without reforming the system of governance.

A few years back, the idea that Japan needs...