Kyoto Protocol - a view.

• Author: Mitra, Ashesh Prosad
• Position: Includes related article on the recommendations contained in the agreement signed in Kyoto, Japan

One can only look at the outcome of the Third Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Kyoto from 1 to 10 December 1997, with a certain amount of pessimism since several scientific factors were not seriously considered and the utterly divergent views of the developing and developed world could not be breached.

The key scientific points centre around the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction scenario, the carbon dioxide-equivalent concept vs. individual gases, and the issue of sinks - the processes, activities or mechanisms which remove a GHG or aerosol or a precursor of a GHG from the atmosphere.

In addition, there was a question as to whether or not there should be "commitments" from the developing countries on the matter of transfer of technology and the currently used 'Activities Implemented Jointly", as well as the relevant principles, modalities, rules and guidelines for "emissions' trading".

The question that was most seriously debated was that of the level of reduction, the time frame of reduction, and the gases to be included. Annex I countries (the industrialized countries listed in this Annex to the Convention must adopt measures aimed at returning their GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000) were in favour of including six gases: C[O.sub.2] (carbon dioxide), C[H.sub.4] (methane), [N.sub.2]0 (nitrous oxide), HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and [SF.sub.6] (sulphur hexaflouride).

The Group of 77 countries and China were opposed to a C[O.sub.2]-equivalent concept where all these gases would be lumped together by multiplying emissions from each gas by its global warming potential (GWP). There is some scientific concern in an approach of this kind, arising from the fact that: the lifetimes of these gases are widely different, ranging from about 10 years for methane to more than 100 years for carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide; with the proposed time horizon of 100 years, there will be ten lifetimes of methane; and GWPs have gone through substantial changes with that of methane having been changed from 24 to 21 in just one year.

There is also another concern: Annex I countries might concentrate on gases with high GWPs and leave the energy sector untouched. On the other hand, given the present state of knowledge, it is also difficult to scientifically judge the level of reduction necessary for each one of these gases separately.

The reduction question...