Joe Biden: What Kind of President? Democratic centrist or left-wing captive?

• Author: Ullmann, Owen

As the 2020 presidential election enters its final stretch, the prospect of a Joe Biden victory is growing, and that raises the question of how he would govern. Biden has promised to unify the country by trying to pursue a bipartisan consensus on many issues, yet the stark polarization that has gripped the nation makes such an approach awfully difficult to achieve.

So the question is: Will a President Biden stick to the largely Democratic center that has marked his long political career and fulfill his pledge to reach out to Republicans, or will he be pulled to the left by a powerful and vocal alliance of party activists who will clamor for such policies as Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and police defunding from his first days in office?

If Biden ousts President Trump in a close contest, the Democrats will be less likely to pick up a significant number of seats in the House or capture control of the Senate from the Republicans, who will be able to block a left-wing legislative agenda. However, if Biden wins in a landslide that results in big gains in the House and a Democratic-controlled Senate, the party will have the levers of power to enact sweeping changes in health care, the environment, taxes, trade, and federal spending.

At the same time, such an electoral mandate would allow Biden to claim that voters elected him because he is a mainstream Democrat who won't be beholden to the Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party. And while he supports many programs opposed by conservatives and the business community, such as an increase in corporate and capital gains taxes, he has stood firm throughout the campaign against the more radical proposals pushed by the left. He's even adopted Trump's hardline stance toward China and likely would retain tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. His selection of California Senator Kamala Harris, a former presidential rival, as his running-mate underscores his desire to run as a mainstream Democrat.

"The likelihood of the left pulling him to their position on any issue is small," agrees Robert Shapiro, chairman of the consulting firm Sonecon LLC and a senior economic adviser to past Democratic presidential candidates. "He beat the left but mainly, the left is a real minority in the party. Having said that, Biden and the left agree on a number of goals, including universal healthcare coverage, relieving student debt, and taking urgent steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

"Their only leverage would be to refuse to support his proposals," adds Shapiro. "So I don't see the ideological makeup of the party pulling him left, although the party's center is more to the left than it was in 1996 or 2012, and is where Clinton and Obama would be now, as well."

If that's the case, here is a rundown on where a President Biden is likely to stand on key economic policies.

Taxes. Based on his campaign...