Is Africa ready?

• Author: Serageldin, Ismail
• Position: Effects of climate change on Africa

The evidence for climate change is overwhelming. It has been reconfirmed by successive international studies and reports over the last two decades. Catastrophic climate change, which will threaten our entire ecosystem as we know it, is possible, though not yet probable. It is likely to happen if we do not change course and continue to ignore the evidence before our eyes: escalating temperatures will cause a big rise in sea level and the release of methane from the tundra will take us towards a tipping point where living creatures are unable to adapt to the changes fast enough.

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But even the more conventional scenarios, which many are beginning to consider optimistic, will have very far-reaching effects. The consequences of those levels of climate change are generally well understood and widely accepted. The rise in average temperature is just one of the aspects of climate change. Climate change is also likely to include

much greater variations in climate phenomena, including droughts and floods, as well as more frequent and severe weather events, such as hurricanes and storms, and greater seasonal variability from mild and severe winters to dry and very wet summers. Especially in Africa, growing seasons will be shorter in practically the entire continent, with few small areas affected in a positive way.

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Against that background, Africa will suffer far more than most other regions. It is particularly galling that Africans, who have contributed least to climate change, are the ones who will suffer most from it.

By any ethical measure, some compensation is due.

Africa's ability to cope is constrained because its governance is weak. However, there are shining examples in Africa that deserve our plaudits and our support: The Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, for example, has recognized outstanding leadership from Mandela to Chissano and from Masire to Moghaye--and there are many more. But despite stellar performances in some countries and areas, the overall conditions in many parts of the continent are marked by fragile economies and weak institutions, particularly susceptible to external shocks. Low levels of achievement in education and health coexist with widespread AIDS, malaria and other diseases that claim countless lives. Poor infrastructure and limited communications all mean that the ability to compete internationally is limited. Governance is problematic almost...