IMF Working Papers

• Pages: 9-12

9

December 2012

9

(continued on page 10)

to date following the 200 9 global recession whereas advanced

countries have been experienci ng their weakest one.

Question 7: How synchronized are national recessions

around episodes of global recessions? And how do

national cycles interact with the global cycle during these

periods?

Not surprisingly, the frac tion of countries in recession

went up sharply during the four globa l recessions. e frac-

tion of countries in recession was ab out 50 percent in the

rst three globa l recessions, but went up to more than 75

percent in the latest episode. Alt hough the period 2006–07

stands out as one in which the numb er of countries in reces-

sion was at a historical low, it has been followed by a sharp

reversal in fortu ne. In 2009, all the advanced economies,

except Australia , and roughly half the emerging ma rket and

developing countries were in recession. i s degree of syn-

chronicity of the last reces sion to date has been the highest

over the past half centu ry.

National business cycles are t ightly linked to the global

business cycle. ey become more sensitive to developments

in the global economy duri ng global recessions. ere are,

however, signicant dierences across countr ies; advanced

countries appear to be more sensitive to g lobal recessions

than developing economies. Cou ntries tend to be more sen-

sitive to the global cycle t he more integrated they are to the

global economy.

is article is ba sed on the authors’ forthcoming IMF

Working Paper, “Global Recessions and Global Recoveries .”

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