Does George W. Bush's high popularity mean anything?

• Position: A Symposium Of Views

BACKGROUND: It is all but universally agreed that the unusually high popularity ratings of George W. Bush to date stem from the post 9/11 war against terrorism. The President did not enjoy much of a political honeymoon in the classic sense, and the first nine months of his Administration were decidedly mixed until war broke out. Yet even several months after 9/11, when it became clear Osama Bin Laden had not yet been captured or killed, the President's poll ratings remained unexpectedly high. Even Enron-related problems so far have had little effect, although the jury is still out on whether Wall Street-related problems bring down the President's ratings.

The real question is whether George W. Bush is merely lucky, in the right place at the right time, or whether he has transcended to some new level in the public's mind, with powerful long term political significance ? Put another way, has the Bush popularity remained high simply because the American people historically rally around a leader in times of war, or is the popularity tied to Bush 's handling of the war, specifically to his Texas-style penchant for wanting to "kick ass" against a feared opponent? Perhaps the real issue here comes down to the question of what makes an individual "presidential" in the national psyche ? Has Bush achieved a destined level of presidential appropriateness in the public's mind, or would any President's poll ratings remain high under similar circumstances of long-term terrorist danger?

His Popularity Is Deceptive

President Bush's apparent popularity is deceptive. The people are supporting the Office of the Presidency, rather than Bush personally, as they always do in time of crisis.

Bush is at the mercy of events. Further acts of domestic terrorism can be blamed on the President's failure to adequately protect the country, and Senate Democrats hold a veto process over Bush's domestic agenda.

Mr. Bush, who lost the popular vote in 2000, stands no better than a 50/50 chance of re-election.

John Sears is the former campaign manager for Ronald Reagan.

The Big Drop's Coming

President Bush's approval ratings have remained high because Americans appreciate his response to the September 11 terrorist attacks on our country and because they think he's a nice guy who could visit with them at their local coffee or barber shop.

But those ratings are likely to have little long-term political significance for three reasons:

First, they're already beginning to slip. Most recent polling has the President's approval ratings dropping into the 60 percent range for the first time since before September 11. In the New York Times/CBS NewsPoll, for example, his rating fell nine points during the last two weeks of July.

Second, the President's ratings are artificially inflated because of high levels of support from Democrats and independents. That support...