After Fukushima Daiichi, what's nuclear energy's future?

• Author: Schlesinger, James R.

It is ironical that an era heralded as a prospective nuclear renaissance will actually turn out to be a renaissance for antinuclear activists. Equally ironical is that just as nuclear power was achieving grudging acceptance, if not an embrace, by many environmentalists as a needed element of "green power," that acceptance was swept away by an earthquake/tsunami which appears to justify much of the earlier trepidations. The fates turned against the anticipated "renaissance."

The development of shale gas has made gas-fired power plants more economically attractive than nuclear power plants, which still require direct or indirect subsidies to be competitive. The construction costs of nuclear plants had already risen before the tragedy of the Fukushima-Daiichi plant. Inevitably that leads to further review or, as in Germany, the closing of nuclear plants. In democracies--where public opinion roles--the prospects for nuclear power have fallen under a heavy cloud. Instead of the expected renaissance of nuclear power, there may even be a shrinkage here in the United States. Boards of directors, fearful of lawsuits and prudency hearings, will be increasingly hesitant to authorize new nuclear construction.

To be sure, authoritarian governments, such as China, have more latitude to proceed with new plants, since public opinion or lawsuits need not be a deterrent--though a retreat to coal-fired plants may readily be justified. Thus the prospects for nuclear power look unpromising at least for the near future. The hoped-for "renaissance," always exaggerated, both by the industry and by governments attempting to reconcile energy growth with aspirations for controlling carbon dioxide emissions, will inevitably turn out to be a major disappointment.

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The tragic nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, FNPS-1, will undoubtedly cause all countries to review the ability of their nuclear facilities to withstand severe natural disasters at the limit that can reasonably be imagined to occur. It is unrealistic to think that the nuclear power industry can go forward as if nothing has happened. The public is unlikely to be swayed by reaffirmation that either nuclear power is an essential part of the energy future, or that the Japanese disaster confirms the unsuitability of nuclear power. The public deserves, and good government demands, objective study of implications of the Japanese experience for the level of risk of...