Five Fundamental Changes Are Boosting Growth in Africa

Growing group of African countries posting steady growth, falling poverty

Spread of democracy, more accountability improve economic policymaking

New technology, new generation of leaders bode well for Africa’s future

Instead of treating the region as a monolith, the former Center for Global Development senior fellow stressed the differences between Africa’s emerging countries. He said that since the mid-1990s, a group of 17 emerging countries had broken away from the rest of the region and achieved steady economic growth, deepening democracy, stronger leadership, and falling poverty.

“The biggest trend in sub-Saharan Africa over the last 15 years is divergence,” Radelet told a November 11 book forum at IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. “The story that people claim—that after all the efforts and the aid flows there has been no change in Africa—is garbage.”

Radelet said there had been three big phases of varied growth in the sub-Saharan African region since 1960. There had been a period of modest growth up to the mid-1970s, which coincided with moves toward independence establishing new countries on the continent.

This period of initial postindependence growth had then ground to a halt in the mid-1970s, under pressure from the oil price shocks and global growth slowdowns of the period. The adverse impact of global events had been complemented by moves toward autocracy among some postindependence African governments.

Clear economic decline

There followed a period of about 20 years of clear economic decline, in which the region could be treated as an economic monolith because nearly all its countries were caught up in the decline.

Radelet’s book groups 17 emerging sub-Saharan African countries that posted per capita economic growth of more than 2 percent for the period 1996-2008.

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Ghana

Lesotho

Mali

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sao Tome and Principe

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

“That is the image that most people still have in mind for most of sub-Saharan Africa,” Radelet declared. “But the fact is that things changed pretty clearly in the mid-1990s. Most people miss that this was the real turning point.”

Dividing sub-Saharan Africa’s countries into three groups—oil exporters, emerging countries, and other countries—Radelet said the group of 17 emerging countries was distinct in having posted per capita economic growth of more than 2 percent in the period 1996–2008...