Faced with large human losses, Swaziland focuses on controlling HIV/AIDS epidemic
| Author | Markus Haacker |
| Position | IMF African Department |
| Pages | 358-359 |
Page 358
When an IMF mission visited Swaziland for the annual Article IV consultation in April 2000, it discussed with the authorities the economic and social implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that the country is experiencing. This article highlights some of the issues that emerged during the visit, such as the scale of the demographic impact, the impact on the public and private sectors, and government strategies to combat the epidemic.
Swaziland, along with Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, is one of the countries most seriously affected by HIV/AIDS (see table, page 359). The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that, by the end of 1999, about 130,000 Swazis (out of a total population of less than a million) were infected with HIV, which represents an HIV prevalence rate of 25 percent in the working-age population (ages 15–49). HIV prevalence rates among young adults (ages 15–30) are reported to be even higher than the aggregate prevalence rate of 25 percent reported by UNAIDS. Thus, the share of this generation that will become victims to AIDS will exceed the aggregate prevalence rate.
About 7,100 Swazis died of AIDS in 1999. Because of the disease’s long incubation period, this number is expected to rise over the next few years and to remain at high levels, even if the number of new infections can be reduced. For the period 2004–07, the Swazi government projects that about 60 percent of all deaths will be AIDS-related. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, by 1998, life expectancy at birth in Swaziland had fallen to 39 years; it would be 58 years if the country were not experiencing an AIDS epidemic. To date, 12,000 Swazis have been orphaned because of AIDS, and the government projects that the total number of underage AIDS orphans will rise to 120,000 (about 10 percent of the population) by 2010.
There is no comprehensive study of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector in Swaziland. However, the IMF staff estimates, on the basis of studies of other countries in the region, that the demand for health services created by HIV/AIDS amounted to about 1 percent of GDP in 1999 and may rise to about 1.5 percent of GDP...
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