The end of the third world: the case for modernizing multilateralism.

• Author: Zoellick, Robert B.

For decades, students of security and international politics have debated the emergence of a multi-polar system. It's time we recognize the new economic parallel.

If 1989 saw the end of the "Second World" with Communism's demise, then 2009 saw the end of what was known as the "Third World." We are now in a fast-evolving multi-polar world economy in which some developing countries are emerging as economic powers, others are moving towards becoming additional poles of growth, and some are still struggling to break out of poverty.

Poverty remains and must be addressed, as well as post-conflict and failed states and global challenges such as climate change. But the manner in which we address these issues is shifting. The outdated categorizations of First and Third Worlds, donor and supplicant, leader and led, no longer fit. The implications for multilateralism, global cooperative action, power relationships, development, and international institutions are profound.

MULTILATERALISM MATTERS

The global economic crisis has shown that multilateralism matters. Staring into the abyss, countries pulled together to save the global economy. The modern G20 was born out of crisis. It showed its potential by quickly acting to shore up confidence. The question now is whether this cooperation was an aberration.

Will historians look back on 2009 and see it as a singular case of international cooperation, or the start of something new?

The danger now is that as fear of the crisis recedes, so will willingness to cooperate. This would be a mistake. Economic and political tectonic plates are shifting. We can shift with them, and not continue to view a new world through the prism of the old.

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WHAT IS DIFFERENT?

The developing world was not the cause of the crisis, but it could be an important part of the solution. Our world will look very different in ten years, with demand coming not just from the United States and advanced economies but from around the globe.

Already we see the shifts. Asia's share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms has risen steadily from 7 percent in 1980 to 21 percent in 2008. Asia's stock markets now account for 32 percent of global market capitalization, ahead of the United States at 30 percent and Europe at 25 percent. Last year, China overtook Germany to become the world's biggest exporter. It also surpassed the United States to become the world's largest car and vehicle market.

The developing world is becoming a driver of the global economy. Much of the recovery in world trade has been due to strong demand for imports among developing countries. Even though developing world imports are about half of the imports of high-income countries, they are growing at a much faster rate. As a result, they accounted for more than half of the increase in world import demand since 2000.

NEW POLES OF GROWTH

The world economy is rebalancing. We are witnessing a move towards multiple poles of growth as middle classes grow in developing countries, billions of people join the world economy, and new patterns of integration combine regional intensification with global openness.

This change is not just about China or India. The developing world's share of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms has...