Editor's Note

• Author: Paolo Mauro
• Pages: 1

Page 1

The two leading articles address research in areas that are of key importance to the IMF's work even as they present daunting challenges in obtaining strong and conclusive results. Early Warning Systems (EWS) seek to predict currency crises, though there is a debate on whether this is at all possible in efficient markets. Indeed, the adage "If you are so smart, why ain't you rich?" might cast doubt on the success of these efforts. Yet, EWS seem to have some predictive power, and many investment banks now use them, presumably for a good reason. Assessing IMF Program Effectiveness involves major methodological difficulties. If you are sitting in your doctor's waiting room today, the people you see there are more likely to visit the doctor again next month than are those who are...