EAEA16 Keynote Address: The Future of Globalization

• Published date: 01 March 2019
• Author: Richard Baldwin
• Date: 01 March 2019
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/asej.12168

EAEA16 Keynote Address: The Future of

Globalization*

Richard Baldwin

Received 1 November 2018; Accepted 10 November 2018

The ‘old’globalization was about things we make. The future globalization will

be quite different: it will also be about things we do. This future is coming incredi-

bly fast and in ways few people expect. Digital technology is making it possible

for ‘tele-migrants’sitting in one country to do things in another country, and for

AI to become incredibly effective in certain kinds of tasks. We need to prepare

ourselves for the future of globalization by building up skills that allow us to avoid

direct competition with tele-migrants and by realizing that humanity is an edge.

Keywords: Globalization, Hyperglobalization, Second Unbundling.

JEL classification codes: F1, F15.

doi: 10.1111/asej.12168

I. Introduction

Globalization conjures up different images for different people. Some people

think of cargo ships and freight trains, others think of sweatshop factories in

developing nations, yet others think of factories closing in Italy, Germany or the

United States.

My goal in giving today’s lecture is to change the image of globalization in

your mind, regardless of what it is. In fact, I’d like to change the way you think

about globalization.

You see, I think future globalization will be very different than the globaliza-

tion we know today, and the globalization we have known in the past. Moreover,

it is coming incredibly fast, and in ways few people expect. This is why we need

to prepare ourselves, our families, and our nations for the future of globalization.

That preparation will require a very different mind-set for one very simple rea-

son. Future globalization will be about things we do, not just things we make.

That sounds pretty abstract now, but over the next few pages we’ll walk down a

path of logic and facts, and at the end of the journey, I hope that sentence makes

perfect sense. And I hope that sentence helps you understand why you should be

both a little more nervous and a little more excited about future globalization.

*Baldwin: International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Maison de la Paix 8th Floor, Room

p1-801, Geneva, Switzerland. Email: baldwin@graduateinstitute.ch.

© 2019 East Asian Economic Association and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd

Asian Economic Journal 2019, Vol.33 No.1, 3–12 3