A democratic view: a few inches with seismic consequences.

• Author: Podesta, John D.
• Position: U.S. Election Postmortem

The election of 2002 is likely to be remembered as one in which a closely divided American electorate moved only a few inches, but with seismic consequences to how the country is governed.

By some measures, this was little more than a status quo election. After the 2000 election, the Senate was 50-50. Senator Jeffords' switch made it 51-49 Democratic. The 2002 election made it 51-49 Republican. Inches. But what a profound effect on the President's strength in governing.

A good deal of that effect has almost less to do with the result--the Republican takeover of the Senate, a body which, as Tom Daschle learned, is hard to manage without the super majority needed to cut off filibuster--and more to do with how the race was conducted.

Going into the election, President Bush and his team surveyed the landscape and saw that while the weak economy meant that Democrats were likely to pick up some important Governor's houses, redistricting made the House Republican majority all but safe, and that the Senate would be decided on the President's turf. Nine out of ten close Senate races were in so-called red states, states the President carded in 2002.

Given that line up, the President decided to put it all on the line, campaigning in an off-year like no previous President, masterfully controlling the fall congressional calendar to focus on Iraq and the Department of Homeland Security and to avoid any discussion of the economy. He pleaded to his Republican base that this election was a referendum on his leadership on national security affairs.

Against this, the Democrats ran a tactical race, critiquing the President's economic performance, but offering no compelling plan of where they would take the country.

The President rolled the dice, and he won--big time.

But what will the win mean for the country?

Judges. The most certain result of this election is that President Bush will be able to put a more conservative stamp on the federal courts, especially the important Circuit Courts of Appeal. The Senate will move on judges more quickly and the Senate Judiciary Committee is unlikely to vote down any of the President's selections, as they did two of his most conservative picks last Congress. While the press has focused on the potential impact on social issues such as abortion and school prayer, the impact on business-related issues, especially employment rights, workplace safety, environmental regulation, property takings, access to the courts, and tort...