Cuban Emigration to the United States, Part II, from 1990 to 2019: A Statistical and Comparative Analysis

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.13169/intejcubastud.14.1.0092
• Pages: 92-110
• Published date: 05 July 2022
• Date: 05 July 2022
• Author: Salim Lamrani
• Subject Matter: Cuba,United States,emigration,America,statistics,comparative analysis

InternatIonal Journal of Cuban StudIeS 14.1 Summer 2022

ACADEMIC ARTICLE

CUBAN EMIGRATION TO THE UNITED

STATES, PART II, FROM 1990 TO 2019:

A STATISTICAL AND COMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

Salim Lamrani

Université de La Réunion

Salim Lamrani is a Professor of Latin American History at the University of La Réunion,

specialising in US–Cuba relations. He has published The Economic War Against Cuba: A

Historical and Legal Perspective of the U.S. Blockade (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2013)

and Cuba, the Media and the Challenge of Impartiality (New York,:Monthly Review Press,

2015). In total, he is the author of ten books published in French, English, Spanish and Italian.

Abstract

Since 1959, Cuban emigration seems to have been the subject of two consensuses.

First, the Cuban Revolution would have resulted in a significant migratory movement

towards the United States. Second, that this would reflect the rejection of the process

of social transformation structured around a one-party political system put in place by

Fidel Castro. The migration statistics of the US authorities, available for the period from

1860 to 2019, will shed light on this question by comparing the various flows from Cuba

at different times (1860–1959, 1960–89, 1990–2019). Likewise, a comparative analysis

of migratory flows emitted by the countries of the region will assess the relevance of

these two hypotheses.

Keywords: Cuba, United States, emigration, America, statistics, comparative analysis

Introduction to Part II

Since the Cuban Revolution in 1959, the Cuban migration issue has been the

subject of debate. Two postulates seem to have become widely accepted. First of

DOI:10.13169/intejcubastud.14.1.0092

CUBAN EMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES, PART II, FROM 1990 TO 2019 93

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all, it is commonly accepted that the process of social transformation undertaken

under the leadership of Fidel Castro since coming to power and the establish-

ment of a one-party political system were the cause of a migratory phenomenon,

unprecedented in the country’s history, mainly to the United States. Secondly, a

significant proportion of observers of Cuba consider that the massive emigration

of Cubans since 1959 expresses the rejection of the political, economic and

social system currently in force in the largest island of the Caribbean.

The statistics relating to Cuban emigration to the United States, available for

the period from 1860 to 2019, with the exception of the years 1900–19, make it

possible to assess the relevance of these interpretations. What was the migratory

reality in Cuba before 1959 compared to the rest of the American continent? Is

Cuban emigration from 1959 exceptional in comparison with previous figures,

and departures from other countries in the region? Are there objective factors

encouraging emigration to the United States specific to Cuba from 1959? What

was the migratory reality during the “Special Period” in general, and more pre-

cisely, during the famous Balseros crisis in 1994? What is the reality of migratory

flows today? Finally, can we use Cuban emigration to assess the adherence of the

population to the political and socio-economic regime present in the island?

After a presentation of the initial postulate, three chronological lenses struc-

ture this study. First, Cuban emigration is analysed during the period 1860–1959,

that is to say, from the beginning of the decade which marks the outbreak of the

First War of Independence in Cuba (1868–78) until the end of the reign of the

military regime of Fulgencio Batista in 1959. A second step focuses on the Cuban

migratory reality from 1960 until 1989, that is to say, the imposition of the first

economic sanctions by the Eisenhower administration until the year of the fall of

the Berlin Wall. These were covered in Part I of this article. Finally, this analysis

will end with the migratory reality of Cuba from the end of the Cold War to the

present day (1990–2019), and then a Conclusion addresses both parts of the

article. These last two are the topics of this Part II.

Cuban Emigration to the United States from 1990 to 2019

In January 1990, following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Cuban government

established the “Special Peacetime Period”, imposing restrictions on energy con-

sumption as a result of the drop in oil deliveries (Castro Ruz 1990). In September

1991, Russia announced the end of its political, economic and military union

with Cuba and withdrew its troops from the country (McManus 1991; The

Houston Chronicle 1991). The impact of the Russian withdrawal was devastat-

ing for the Cuban economy. Thus, from 1989 to 1993, GDP fell by 33% and

Cuba had to face the most serious economic crisis in its history. Almost 85% of