Cuba as a Hemispheric Petropower: Prospects and Consequences

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.13169/intejcubastud.11.1.0043
• Pages: 43-60
• Published date: 01 July 2019
• Date: 01 July 2019
• Author: H. Michael Erisman
• Subject Matter: oil,Cuba,US,international relations,economy,power

IJCS Produced and distributed by Pluto Journals www.plutojournals.com/ijcs/

CUBA AS A HEMISPHERIC PETROPOWER:

PROSPECTS AND CONSEQUENCES

H. Michael Erisman1

Indiana State University, USA

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the evolving situation with regard to Cuba’s oil

prospects and explores the implications, especially with regard to Havana’s foreign

relations, of Cuba’s potential emergence as a hemispheric petropower. It begins with

an assessment of the size of the reserves and the problems of exploiting them. It then

analyses the impact of the discovery of sizeable reserves on the Cuban economy and

the concerns that this may raise with the US. There follows a discussion of the possible

implications of Cuba becoming a petropower on international relations within the

Caribbean and with Washington in particular. The article concludes that overall, the

exploitation of large quantities of oil in Cuban waters of the Caribbean will be a positive

development both for the Cuban economy and the relationship with the US.

Keywords: oil, Cuba, US, international relations, economy, power

Introduction

In 2008 reports began to circulate about the potential for significant oil deposits

north of Cuba in the island’s offshore exclusive economic zone. The estimates

ranged from approximately 5 billion barrels (US Geological Survey) to 20 billion

barrels (Cuban government). If the mid to higher range of these estimates proves

to be correct, Cuba will enter an exclusive club as one of the top 20 nations of

ACADEMIC ARTICLE

1 H. Michael Erisman, until his retirement, was Professor of Political Science at Indiana

State University and is the author of numerous publications about Cuba’s interna-

tional relations, Cuban Health Care and Medical Internationalism.

44 ACADEMIC ARTICLE – H. MICHAEL ERISMAN

InternatIonal Journal of Cuban StudIeS 11.1 Summer 2019

the world in terms of oil reserves. Even using the lowest estimate, Canada and

Venezuela would be the only nations in the Western Hemisphere to surpass

Cuba on the basis of per capita oil reserves (see Table 1).

This article will provide an overview of the evolving situation with regard to

Cuba’s oil prospects and will explore the implications, especially with regard to

Havana’s foreign relations, of Cuba’s potential emergence as a hemispheric

petropower. Among the issues/questions that will be addressed are:

Varying perspectives on the size of the reserves.

What problems might be encountered in finding, drilling and extracting the oil.

The potential impact of sizeable reserves on Cuba’s economy and its eco-

nomic security.

US concerns about the development of Cuba’s oil reserves.

Table 1 Oil reserves, total and per capita barrels

Oil – estimated reserves Population Per Capita

World Rank, Jan 2017 World Rank, Jan 2018 Reserves

1. Venezuela 300,900,000,000 32,381,221 9,292

2. Saudi Arabia 266,500,000,000 33,554,343 7,942

3. Canada 169,700,000,000 36,953,765 4,592

4. Iran 158,400,000,000 82,011,735 1,931

5. Iraq 142,500,000,000 38,654,287 3,687

6. Kuwait 101,500,000,000 4,197,128 24,183

11. US 36,520,000,000 326,766,748 112

15. Brazil 12,700,000,000 210,867,954 60

19. Mexico 7,640,000,000 130,759,074 58

71. Cuba (current) 124,000,000 11,489,082 11

Factoring in recent estimates of new Cuban North Shore reserves

Cuba (low US estimate) 4,600,000,000 411a

Cuba (high US estimate) 14,000,000,000 1,229a

Cuba (low Cuban estimate) 7,000,000,000b620a

Cuba (high Cuban estimate) 20,000,000,000 1,752b

Sources: CIA World Factbook (January 2017 estimates of reserves) www.worldometers.info/world-

population/population-by-country/. Last accessed 2 December 2018.

aCalculated on current proven reserves plus estimates.

bIn April 2011, Cuba issued a low estimate of 5–9 billion barrels. The 7 billion figure represents the middle

of this range. See Leslie Moore Mira, ‘Cuba Lowers its Resource Estimate to 9 Billion Barrels: Official’,

Platts Commodity News (5 April 2011).