Continuing U.S. and multilateral efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program.

• Author: Crook, John R.

Efforts by the United States and other countries to end Iran's nuclear enrichment program appear not to have reduced Iran's determination to move ahead. Efforts to gain additional tough Security Council sanctions may have been rendered more difficult, following announcement in early December of a new National Intelligence Assessment of Iran's actions and capabilities. (1) This assessment, by U.S. intelligence agencies, concludes "with high confidence" that Iran previously had a nuclear weapons program but ended it in 2003, primarily because of international scrutiny and pressure. It also concludes "with moderate-to-high confidence," however, that Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. (2) According to press reports, the assessment reflected both new intelligence, including information indicating senior Iranian military officers' objections to the halt of Iran's weapons program, and more rigorous analytical methods. (3) Iran hailed the assessment as vindicating its past claims. Some International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Israeli officials questioned it, however, expressing doubts that Iran had significantly curtailed its weapons program. (4)

After the estimate was released, President Bush urged that Iran could restart its weapons program at any time, that it remained a threat to the United States and other countries, that the new assessment validated past U.S. strategy, and that it showed the need for continued pressure on Iran. (5) The president and senior administration officials have emphasized that Iran could resume its quest for nuclear weapons, and have insisted that Iran provide full disclosure of its actions. (6) Following release of the U.S. assessment, the leaders of France and Germany said that Iran remained a danger and that international pressure should be maintained. (7)

As of mid-December, negotiations were underway on a possible third Security Council sanctions resolution directed at Iran's nuclear activities. (8) However, countries that have been reluctant to endorse tough additional sanctions, notably Russia and China, may find support for their position in the new U.S. assessment. (9) In December, Russia settled past disputes with Iran regarding payments for a nuclear power station under construction in Bushehr in southern Iran, and shipped an initial consignment of nuclear fuel rods for the plant. (10) Matters have been further complicated by China's growing economic and energy ties with Iran...