Can Genocide Be Prevented?

• Author: Lincoln, Bonnie M.
• Position: Brief Article

In seeking answers to this question, this writer has been inspired by the words of Vaclav Havel: "We must not be afraid of dreaming the impossible if we want the seemingly impossible to become a reality." The years since the Second World War have seen a steady growth and strengthening of international law and institutions designed to prevent gross abuses of human rights. While these could only be as effective as political realities would allow, their mission has gained increasing legitimacy over the last few decades.

And at the same time, there has been a remarkable growth in the number and level of activism of private human rights organizations, which has reflected public outrage and revulsion at senseless acts of brutality that some Governments have inflicted on their own citizens. Looked at in these terms, the picture is one of continuous progress. But what we have not seen is a corresponding decrease in the incidence of such crimes.

The record of the nineties has been especially disheartening. While the root causes of violence are unique to each country experiencing it, news reports of murder, rape, torture, disappearances and expulsion have become depressingly familiar.

What more can the international community do to prevent these tragedies? New agreements or institutions are unlikely to accomplish much when existing international law and human decency are already being cynically violated.

It may never be possible to prevent aggressive leaders from using violence to intimidate their citizens, at least at all times and in all places. There are, however, some strategies which this writer believes can help (no claim is made for originality here; many of these ideas have been around for some time, though they are not always applied).

Foreknowledge. Often, the intent of a Government to eliminate its opponents or specific classes of individuals can be discerned: punitive measures against a target group, propaganda singling out the group as outsiders or enemies, and increased government control of the media are among the signs of impending disaster. The international community should act at an early stage when it is still possible to avert the tragedy. The continuing attention of the world press and human rights organizations can be very valuable here.

Consistency. States and international organizations should always be dear that genocide and other acts of violence against civilians are intolerable, even when they are not prepared to respond...