Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce; Smith, Alastair; Siverson, Randolph M.; and Morrow, James D. The Logic of Political Survival.

• Author: Hoff, Samuel B.
• Position: Book review

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce; Smith, Alastair; Siverson, Randolph M.; and Morrow, James D. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003. 536 pages. Paper, $25.00.

Utilizing formal logic, empirical models, and case histories, the authors of this book seek to explain how factors related to the selection of political leaders determine length of tenure in office, policies pursued, leadership turnover, and institutional change. All of the authors are university professors who have worked on this project for a decade and who have published extensively on related topics.

Part I of the text encompasses the first three chapters. Chapter 1 identifies three puzzles with which the authors are concerned and details the organization of the material. Chapter 2 presents the components of the "selectorate theory," while Chapter 3 offers a mathematical model of that theory. In explaining the theory, the authors assert that "the infinite variety of real-world institutional arrangements can be distilled into just two critical dimensions: the selectorate and the winning coalition" (p. 42). While the selectorate is comprised of all those citizens in a society who have a role in the choice of government leaders, the winning coalition is defined as that subset of persons within the selectorate who imbue leaders with power and control the resources that enable incumbents to remain in office. The size of these groups is the factor that determines the behavior and survivability of leaders.

In Part II of the study, the authors apply the selectorate theory to various policies and actions of government leaders. Chapter 4 weighs the impact of selection institutions on taxation, economic growth, and expenditures, and on the likelihood of theft of a nation's wealth, or kleptocracy. Chapter 5 delineates the manner in which selection mechanisms affect policies dealing with civil liberties, political rights, reporting of information, education, health, social security, and trade. Chapter 6 advances evidence to demonstrate the selectorate theory's utility in accounting for conditions of war and peace in democracies and non-democracies. Chapter 7 evaluates the influence that public goods and private goods have on the length of tenure of government leaders. The findings reveal that "good policy is bad politics and bad policy is good politics for small-coalition leaders" (p. 325), whereas "[g]ood policy is good politics and bad policy is bad politics for those who...