Best forecaster?

• Position: Off The News

The Bush (the younger) years have hardly been pleasant for Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. Arriving in town with the best of pedigrees--successful stints at the highest levels both in business (Alcoa) and government (OMB during the Ford administration)--great things were expected but hopes were dashed.

Now Treasury supporters of the Secretary argue that his difficulties--often stemming from a too highly opinionated, shoot-from-the-hip style--have been exaggerated. "Paul wins the award as the best forecaster in the financial world," a senior Treasury official argued. "He early on said the [U.S. economic]...