Assumptions for Georgia's transit revenue estimates

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Page 223

* Over the projection period (2005-12), BTC will be used to transport oil from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) oil field; potential transport of Kazakhstan's oil via the pipeline has not been factored in, since no concrete agreements have been reached to date.

* BTC will be used for exports of ACG oil that cannot be accommodated by the existing western (Baku-Supsa) route.

Given the lower transit fee for BTC ($0.12 a barrel), Georgia's revenues from oil transit would be reduced if oil is redirected through BTC.

* Georgia will receive 5 percent of the gas transported through SCP as a transit fee and will be able to sell that gas for $100 for every thousand cubic meters in the first year (the price will then rise by 2 percent a year).

* The transit fees...