An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003
• Published date: 01 September 2022
• Date: 01 September 2022
• Pages: 322-352
• Subject Matter: Public policy & environmental management,Environmental issues,Climate change
• Author: Christopher Belford,Delin Huang,Yosri Nasr Ahmed,Ebrima Ceesay,Lang Sanyang

An economic assessment of the

impact of climate change on the

Gambia’s agriculture sector: a

CGE approach

Christopher Belford

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Graduate School of Chinese

Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China and School of Business and

Public Admin, University of the Gambia, Serrekunda, Gambia

Delin Huang

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,

Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

Yosri Nasr Ahmed

Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt, and

Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang

School of Business and Public Administration, University of the Gambia,

Serrekunda, Gambia

Abstract

Purpose –Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture

sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This

study aims to establisha computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’sagriculture sector to

examine the effectsof climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

Design/methodology/approach –This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact

models to compute the impacts of climatechange on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting

matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which

exemplify a “steady-state”andpolicy shock results illustrating the medium-and long-term effects of climate

change on thecountry’s agriculture sector.

Findings –The baseline results indicatethe status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to

limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit”sector as a result of climate change.

When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the

macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and

consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The

consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish willdecline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term.

However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same

period. Theresults for international trade show that exportationwould decline while importation willincrease

© Christopher Belford, Delin Huang, Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang.

Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons

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IJCCSM

15,3

322

Received8 January 2022

Revised11 May 2022

Accepted27 June 2022

InternationalJournal of Climate

ChangeStrategies and

Management

Vol.15 No. 3, 2023

pp. 322-352

EmeraldPublishing Limited

1756-8692

DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

https://www.emerald.com/insight/1756-8692.htm

over time. The generalprice level for agricultural commodities wouldincrease by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085.

Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a

multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic

decline causinghunger, poverty and human misery.

Originality/value –The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian

climate changestudies, thus the novelty of the study.

Keywords Climate change, CGE, Economic performance, Agriculture sector, The Gambia

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

1.1 Study objective and scope

The objective of the paper is to empirically assess the economicimpact of climate change on

The Gambia’s agriculture sector. Furthermore, the study attempted to establish a

computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for the country’s agriculture sector to examine

the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise, thus proffering sound

policy suggestions and recommendations on how to economically manage the impacts of

climate change in The Gambia.

The paper’s focus is exclusively and exhaustively on the agriculture sector’s trends and

performance over time. The paper uses a novel constructedsocial accounting matrix (SAM)

to provide a meticulous account of economic and agricultural output given the impact of

climate change. The study also uses mathematical approaches essential for GCE

computation. These approaches were necessary because the study involved quantitative

and monetary impacts thus estimating the costs of climate change on The Gambia’s

agriculture sector. There exist limited studies on climate change’s impact on agriculture in

the country. The approach of the existing studies are not scientificallyrigorous and robust,

hence their inadequacy and inaccuracy in providing a holistic scientific prediction of the

effect of climate change in the country as in the case of Kutir et al. (2015),Ampomah et al.

(2012),Bagagnanet al. (2019),Amuzu et al. (2018),Sanneh et al. (2014).

1.2 Location and topography of The Gambia

The Gambia is at the western end of West Africa, located at 13° 28.02’North 16° 34.02’

West. The total territory area of the country is approximately 11,300km

2

, which is divided

into landmass and water surface areas of approximately 1,300km

2

and 10,000 km

2

,

respectively, thus making the country one of the smallest in mainland Africa (Ampomah

et al.,2012).

The Gambia is divided into north and south banks by the River Gambia, one of the

navigable rivers in West Africa. The country is enclosed on three sides (north, east and

south) by Senegal which is the only country it shares a border with, and on the fourth side

(west) is the Atlantic Ocean(Republic of The Gambia, 2003;Jarrett, 1950).

The topography of The Gambia can broadlybe characterized by two geomorphologies:

(1) Upland plateau –whose feature is mainly poor water retention capability and low

soil fertility, leading to a decline in the productivity of crops and livestock thus

negatively impacting human survival in those areas (Odunuga and Badru, 2015;

Xing et al., 2022).

(2) Lowland plateaus are floodplains of the River Gambia, which demarcates the area

into lower, central and upper valleys.

Gambia’s

agriculture

sector

323