Aging: an update on the elderly worldwide.

Aging: An update on the elderly worldwide

The objective of the 1982 World Assembly on Aging and the International Plan of Action on Aging it adopted was to promote world-wide understanding of the economic, social, cultural and humanitarian implications of the aging of populations and of the tremendous increases in numbers of older persons anticipated in coming decades. A primary point of the Plan of Action was the realization that while development clearly influences the aging of populations, the aging of populations in turn has a direct impact on development.

The world Assembly recommended that the Commission for Social Development review the Plan of Action on Aging every four years, beginning in 1985, and make proposals for updating it as necessary. The first review and appraisal exercise, conducted by the Centre for Social Development and Humanitarian Affairs, was considered by the Commission at its twenty-ninth session in February. The results, based primarily on the replies of Governments and United Nations bodies to a questionnaire on policies and programmes for the elderly, are contained in the Secretary-General's report (E/1985/6).

According to the report, in both developed and developing areas during the early 1980's, the number of people aged 60 and over--the "elderly"--grew faster than the population as a whole. This trend, which holds for every major region except Africa, reflects both current world-wide declines in fertility and the large size of birth cohorts now reaching old age.

Increasingly, developing regions are experiencing the "greying" of their populations that is already well under way in the developed world. United Nations projections for 1985 indicate that 25.6 per cent of the world's elderly live in East Asia; 21 per cent in South Asia; 20.9 per cent in Europe; 10.1 per cent in North America; 8.8 per cent in the Soviet Union, 6.5 per cent in Latin America; and 6.4 per cent of Africa. Compared with 1980, those figures indicate small gains in the shares of Asia, Latin America and Africa, and small declines for Europe, North America and the Soviet Union.

This trend is expected to continue, with projections for the year 2025 showing 29.9 per cent of the world population aged 60 and over living in East Asia; 27.4 per cent in South Asia; 11.5 per cent in Europe; 8.3 per cent in Latin America; 9.1 per cent in Africa; 6.8 per cent in Northern America; 6.4 per cent in the Soviet Union.

Aging trends vary by sex. Since the Plan of Action was set up, the sex ratio--the number of men per 100 women--has remained at approximately 65 for the 60-plus population as a whole, with progressive decreases to a value of 45 for the 80-plus age group in developed regions. In the developing regions, the sex ratio remains at 91 for the 60-plus group and at 71 for those over 80.

Aging trends also vary from region to region. The aging of the population is currently most advanced in Europe. Continued low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy there have led to a 60-plus population estimated at approximately 17 per cent of the total. The early aging of the population structure has had marked socio-economic repercussions. In many countries, the ratio of people of working age (15-59) to those aged 60 or over has narrowed to 4:1.

The situation in Asia has special significance in terms of both the large size of the elderly population and the vast aging potential of several of its nations. The...