IMF urges continued fiscal restraint for Nigeria

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Good progress in implementing the authorities' homegrown reform program led to Nigeria's commendable macroeconomic performance last year, the IMF said in its most recent annual review. Real GDP increased by about 6 percent in 2004, more slowly than in 2003 when there was an unusual surge in oil production, but with growth in the non-oil sectors, particularly agriculture, strengthening significantly.

Increases in both the production and price of oil, as well as a reduction of the price subsidy on domestic crude oil sales to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, boosted oil revenues last year. The consolidated government's fiscal stance, meanwhile, remained prudent. Oil revenues of some $6 billion were set aside, and public spending was kept in check, resulting in a significantly stronger overall fiscal position and a sharp increase in reserves.

Prudent macroeconomic policies prevented the Nigerian currency, the naira, from appreciating strongly as in previous oil-boom periods. The naira did appreciate somewhat, however, and this, along with the fiscal restraint and a tightening of monetary policy, helped the Central Bank of Nigeria to meet its disinflation objectives.

In 2005, however, more expansionary macroeconomic policies, combined with a sharp increase in food prices related to food crises in neighboring countries, pushed 12-month inflation back up to 26 percent by July.

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The IMF Executive Board commended the Nigerian authorities for the economy's strong performance last year and noted the achievement of a number of priority aims, including more predictable...

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