Three scenarios for the future of work

• Published date: 01 December 2019
• Date: 01 December 2019
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12157
• Author: Dominique MÉDA

International Labour Review, Vol. 158 (2019), No. 4

Copyright © The author 2019

Journal compilation and translation © International Labour Organization 2019

* Institute for Interdisciplinary Research in the Social Sciences (IRISSO), University of

Paris-Dauphine–PSL Research University, email: dominique.meda@dauphine.psl.eu. A previous

version of this article was published in 2016 as ILO Research Paper No. 18, The future of work:

The meaning and value of work in Europe.

Responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles rests solely with their authors,

and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the ILO.

Three scenarios for the future of work

Dominique MÉDA*

Abstract. After presenting a historical overview of the concept of work and the

different meanings that it has acquired over the centuries, the author analyses the

value it holds for Europeans, and the impact on work and employment of the

popular rhetoric about a technological revolution and its “inevitable” consequences.

She then considers the future of work in the light of three scenarios: a “dismantling

of labour law”, a “technological revolution” (where automation brings an end to

employment), and an “environmental transition”. She argues that the latter is com-

patible with the imperative to take action on climate change and the expectations

placed in work and employment.

Most of the rhetoric about the future of work insists on the radically dif-

ferent nature of the trends that we are witnessing today. For some,

the globalization of trade and production chains together with the dazzling

progress of automation call for the overhaul of the rules governing European

labour markets to adapt them to global competition. For these voices, labour,

as a factor of production, should by no means impinge on enterprises which,

more than ever before, require exibility, adaptability and responsiveness. At

the same time, though, the expectations that individuals have of work have

never been so high, nor their desire to express themselves through their work

so strong. Moreover, environmental threats are pushing us to rebuild our pro-

duction systems from the ground up.

This article attempts to provide some answers to the questions of the day

regarding the future of work. The rst section after this introduction, presents

a historical overview of the concept of work, based on the hypothesis that it

has absorbed new meanings over the centuries, as the abundant literature on

the subject bears witness. It considers how these many meanings have resulted

in diverse ways of relating to work, in an attempt to provide a brief overview

of Europeans’ expectations in this regard. The second section considers the

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effects on work and employment of the thinking – currently in vogue – that the

ongoing technological revolution will usher in radical transformations, ques-

tioning the technological determinism that underlies this vision and analys-

ing the policies that it implies. The third section presents three main scenarios

in which the future of work could play out: alongside the scenario centring

on technological revolution, another scenario contemplates the possibility of

a drastic reduction in labour and employment protection, while a third, the

scenario of “environmental transition”, could be a major opportunity to re-

connect with full employment, meaningful work and the concept of “decent

work” championed by the ILO. The conditions under which such a scenario

could become a reality are then explored.

The importance of work in the lives of Europeans

This section reviews the historical development of the concept work, highlight

-

ing the way in which the various component dimensions of the modern no-

tion gradually emerged. It then considers the way in which these dimensions

now relate to one another and the value that Europeans give to them, before

taking stock of the gulf separating these expectations and the current percep-

tion of work in Europe.

Historical overview of the concept of work

Our modern concept of work is the result of a long process: over the centu-

ries, it has not always held the same meaning or been valued in the same way

(Gorz, 1988; Freyssenet, 1999; Méda, 2010 [rst published in 1995]; Méda and

Vendramin, 2016). Anthropological and ethnological research into the way

of life of various pre-economic societies (Sahlins, 1968; Descola, 1983; Gode-

lier, 1980; Cartier, 1984; Chamoux, 1994) shows that it is impossible to nd an

identical meaning of the term across them. The general notion of work is not

universal, with many societies seemingly having no need for such a concept

(Chamoux, 1994, p. 61). Studying ancient Greece, Jean-Pierre Vernant (1965)

nds crafts, activities and tasks, but no mention of work. The activities are

classied into irreconcilably diverse categories, permeated by distinctions that

make it impossible to assign a single function to work. The valuation of work,

embryonic in the New Testament, emerged little by little during the Middle

Ages, but the word became synonymous with productive activity only in the

seventeenth century (Rey, 2012). Our modern idea of work gradually emerged

throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, going through several

phases, each one depositing a sediment of extra meaning (Meyerson, 1955).

The invention of work as an abstraction

It was in the eighteenth century that the concept of work crystallized in West-

ern societies. The identication of a range of activities that were sufciently

homogenous to be subsumed under the idea of work made it possible to speak