Thinking Aloud: Is NPT's Assumption of a Finite Number of Nuclear-Weapon States Realistic?

AuthorGasteyger, Curt

There was a blinding flash of light . . .

The short answer to the question is: Most likely not. Few, if anything in human life, are "definitive" or "finite", and they are even less so in international politics. In other words, however we may wish that there will be no "nuclear newcomers" to the club of five "officially" nuclear Powers, it would be unwise and imprudent to assume that the doors to this club will forever be closed. There was no need for India and Pakistan to prove that this is not the case. Their nuclear tests in spring 1998 certainly brought this message home with a crash.

From this painful awakening to a new, possibly more complex nuclear era, we must assume that still more countries may feel tempted or, in their view, even obliged to acquire a nuclear capacity of sorts even if they had joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) many years ago in good faith. Circumstances change and so does the security environment in which Government make their strategic decisions. Even those who, like the author, are protagonists of nonproliferation admit that the existing nuclear Powers have done little to lower, let alone disavow, the prestige still associated with the possession of such weapons. The effort to substantially reduce nuclear stockpiles has made some, but as of now insufficient, progress. By not ratifying the START-II agreement with the United States, Russia is using it as a last resort show-piece of its great-power status. The United States, Great Britain and France have recently reasserted that they are not going to renounce their right to a first-use of nuclear weapons. In their view, the possession of such weapons and the possibility of using them first remain an important element of their security. The conclusion from this would be that the possession of nuclear weapons remains an indispensable element of security and that every country is therefore entitled to acquire such weapons.

However logical this may be, it is certainly not desirable. So where do we go from here to maintain the viability of the NPT?

We realize that in a "globalized" world in which technology and information no longer know and respect national borders and well-kept secrets, the acquisition of increasingly sophisticated weaponry is not only becoming easier but also more contagious. It may even become irresistible because it is affordable. Thus, in order to keep the lid ont eh Pandora box of nuclear proliferation, the...

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