Think Tanks: Who's Hot And Who's Not.

AuthorRUBLE, NICOLAS S.
PositionRatings based on media coverage

The results of a new study comparing economic think tank visibility in the media.

In recent years, think tanks have become an increasingly visible mechanism for presenting informed knowledge and policy expertise. Both within Washington's Beltway and across the country, the total number of think tanks has grown considerably.

What does this trend imply? First, think tanks are exerting more and more influence policymakers, academic circles, and the media. Influence is an ambiguous term and the source of much confusion. For the purposes of this report, we can understand influence within the context of the bridge that think tanks provide between research and the policymaking process. Think tank scholars are economists, political scientists, and sociologists whose careers have, for some, led them through the corridors of government to the halls of research.

A second implication of the proliferation of think tanks is the increased specialization of their research areas. "Full service" institutes that cover the vast spectrum of foreign policy and domestic economics studies are now difficult to establish. Smaller but more specialized institutes are intensifying the competition for ideas affecting policymaking.

How do think tanks, therefore, differentiate their own research from that of their competitors? This brings us to the third implication of think tank proliferation, namely the increase in what Kent Weaver calls the "user-friendliness" of these institutes. After all, how do think tanks survive? The short answer is that they get people to listen. And to this end, they are distributing more and more digestible policy briefs to their target audiences in addition to more traditional studies.

The other component crucial to think tank survival is funding. Funders frequently ask for indicators of think tank effectiveness and impact on the policymaking process. But it is difficult to prove impact because scholarly ideas will take various routes to implementation and will experience several refinements before they change public policy decisions. Indeed, a number of scholars are often capable of claiming "paternity" for any finalized policy idea that makes an impact.

Many private funders prefer to donate money to those think tanks exhibiting impact, direct or indirect, on policy. A think tank can make itself heard through several major avenues of influence. In this study, I have attempted to quantify the visibility of major think tanks using measures of press visibility as my gauge. The first and most basic channel is through public education, facilitated by writing op-ed pieces for newspapers and magazines. Scholars can also be interviewed by journalists. In both cases, scholars cannot necessarily ascertain the flow of information, nor whether the information they disseminate actually reaches its intended audience. Still, measuring the number of

citations is a good place to begin our evaluation of a think tank's or a scholar's effectiveness.

The second avenue of influence is through testimony before congressional heatings. Again, it is practically impossible to measure the impact of heatings on policymaking. Pronounced biases may have already emerged, as with a scholar who becomes a "favorite" and is frequently asked to testify. Nevertheless, cataloguing who testifies and how often is a valid indication of influence.

I have also included an table with statistics for leading academic/university-based economists who are most visible in the public policy debate. Alan Blinder, Rudiger Dornbusch, Martin Feldstein, Paul Krugman, and Jeffrey Sachs are widely recognized as some of the most influential non-think tank or government-based economists. They are often referred to for applied economics research and timely economics commentary. In general, the data offer a valuable basis of comparison of the impact of think tank-based scholars on policymaking. To see whom the press and Congress consult when economic policy debate becomes critical, the sample period I considered was from July 1, 1997...

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