The IMF Today and Tomorrow

• Author: Martin Wolf
• Position: Associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times
• Pages: 5-8

June 2019 | FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT 5

To meet future challenges, the IMF must have strong backing from its members

Martin Wolf

THE IMF

The world is changing. e IMF is changing

with it. e question, however, is not only

how it needs to change if it is to remain rele-

vant. It is also whether the political environment will

allow it to remain relevant. e IMF is built on a com-

mitment to cooperation among member countries.

at commitment is on the wane. But the countries

of the world might rediscover its importance. If so,

they will nd the Fund an invaluable instrument.

e IMF cannot ensure that outcome. But it can,

and must, prepare for it. To its credit, it is doing so.

e world that surrounds the Fund has changed,

or is changing, in several crucial respects.

e rst and most important change is a shift in

global economic, and therefore political, power. In

2000, advanced economies generated 57 percent

of global output, measured by purchasing power

parity. By 2024, according to IMF forecasts, that

share will fall to 37 percent. Meanwhile, China’s

share will jump to 21 percent from 7 percent, and

the rest of emerging Asia will account for 39 percent

of global output, compared with 14 percent for

the United States and 15 percent for the European

Union (see Chart 1).

e second transformation is an increase in great-

power rivalry as relations deteriorate between Western

Today and Tomorrow

“We have come to recognize that

the wisest and most effective way

to protect our national interests is

through international cooperation—

that is to say, through united effort for

the attainment of common goals.”

—US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, Jr.,

closing address at Bretton Woods Conference,

July 22, 1944

“Protection will lead to great

prosperity and strength.”

—US President Donald Trump,

inaugural address, January 20, 2017

“For everything to stay

the same, everything

must change.”

—Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa,

The Leopard