Spatiotemporal climate variability and extremes in Middle Awash Afar region Ethiopia: implications to pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security

• Date: 21 May 2024
• Pages: 228-252
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0140
• Published date: 21 May 2024
• Subject Matter: Public policy & environmental management,Environmental issues,Climate change
• Author: Ameha Tadesse Aytenfisu,Degefa Tolossa,Solomon Tsehay Feleke,Desalegn Yayeh Ayal

Spatiotemporal climate variability

and extremes in Middle Awash

Afar region Ethiopia: implications

to pastoralists and

agro-pastoralists food security

Ameha Tadesse Aytenfisu

Center for Food Security Studies, College of Development Studies,

Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Degefa Tolossa

Center for Rural Development Studies, College of Development Studies,

Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and

Solomon Tsehay Feleke and Desalegn Yayeh Ayal

Center for Food Security Studies, College of Development Studies,

Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Purpose –This study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for

pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara andAwash Fentale districts of the Afar region,

Ethiopia.

Design/methodology/approach –The study relied on meteorological records of temperature and

rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make

caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitativedata, and that is the contribution of this study to

the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the

Mann–Kendalltest and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed usingthe coeff‌icient of variation

and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation

evapotranspirationindex were applied to determine thedrought frequency and severity.

Findings –The result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although

the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a

decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study

sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfallvariability. The drought analysis result conf‌irms that a total

of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extremeyears were observed. Overall, the seasonal and

annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal

variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climatesituation of

the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’food security. However, analysis of data

© Ameha Tadesse Aytenf‌isu, Degefa Tolossa, Solomon Tsehay Feleke and Desalegn Yayeh Ayal.

Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons

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IJCCSM

16,2

228

Received20 November 2023

Revised2 February 2024

18February 2024

Accepted18 March 2024

InternationalJournal of Climate

ChangeStrategies and

Management

Vol.16 No. 2, 2024

pp. 228-252

EmeraldPublishing Limited

1756-8692

DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0140

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

https://www.emerald.com/insight/1756-8692.htm

from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study

area would be misleading. That explains why f‌looding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of

catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastorallivelihoods.

Practical implications –The analysisof temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region,hence the

inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions

which appearsto be useful direction to future researchers.

Originality/value –The research is originallyconducted using meteorological and existing literature,and

hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in

insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the f‌ield. These insights serve to advance

scholarlydiscourse on the subject matter.

Keywords Climate variability, Climate change, Afar, Livelihoods, Food security, Drought, Flood

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

Climate variability poses signif‌icant threats to the achievement of sustainable development

goals at both global and national levels. Developing countries, particularly those heavily reliant

on nature for their economy and livelihoods, face practical and severe consequences from these

phenomena (Filho et al., 2022;Pradhan et al., 2022;Birkmann et al., 2022). Ethiopia experiences

rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, recurrent droughts, irreversible land

degradation, worsening structural poverty and chronic food insecurity (IFPRI and UNDP,

2019). Climate variability and extreme events could disrupt the national economy, exacerbating

food insecurity, soil erosion, runoff and water resource depletion, impacting livelihoods

(Radovi

c and Iglesias, 2019;Shukla et al., 2019). The northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia confront

multiple challenges including climate extremes, invasive alien species and pressure from

population-induced rangeland degradation. These factors collectively weaken the ecosystem

and biodiversity potential of the area, potentially worsening food insecurity (Birkmann et al.,

2022;Ayal et al., 2023;IFPRI and UNDP, 2019;Shiferaw et al., 2021;IPCC, 2014).

The climate variables such as temperature, precipitation and humidity are inherently

characterized by spatiotemporal variations (Doshi et al., 2023). These variations and associated

impacts on the livelihood and food security of the exposed community could be explained by

hydrometeorological spatial (local, regional and global) and temporal (daily, seasonal and

annual) events distribution behavior (Niang et al., 2014). Drought is among the most recurring

hydrometeorological hazards characterized by extended periods of falling precipitation below

average and hence, causes pasture and water scarcity. Drought frequency, duration and

intensity could vary signif‌icantly across regions and over time. The severity of drought and its

effect could be exaggerated by non-climatic factors, e.g. rangeland degradation, demographic

and institutional factors (Filho et al., 2021;Filho et al.,2020;Ayal et al., 2019). It seems clear that

understanding how these variables change across seasons and years at the microlevel is

essential for discerning long-term climate trends for adequate and proper intervention

(Birkmann et al., 2022;Filho et al.,2022;Shukla et al.,2019).

Cognizant of this reality, this study examines the spatiotemporal trends, distributional

behavior and drought situation using observational data. The temporal aspect of climate

variability has been reconstructed at seasonal and annual scales. The spatial aspect of

climate variability has been reconstructed based on meteorological data throughout the

Amibara and Awash Fentale districts. Drought frequency and magnitude were also

examined using establisheddrought indices and investigated the patterns of variousclimate

extremes. In so doing, the article attemptsto contribute to a deeper understanding of climate

variability in a localized setting and its real impacts and potential implications for

ecosystems, societiesand economies.

Implications to

pastoralists

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