Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends for a mixed crop-livestock production system: its implications for developing adaptation strategies

• Date: 11 October 2024
• Pages: 268-290
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2024-0133
• Published date: 11 October 2024
• Subject Matter: Public policy & environmental management,Environmental issues,Climate change
• Author: Sintayehu Alemayehu,Daniel Olago,Opere Alfred,Tadesse Terefe Zeleke,Sintayehu W. Dejene

Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall

and temperature variability and

trends for a mixed crop-livestock

production system: its implications

for developing adaptation strategies

Sintayehu Alemayehu

Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi,

Nairobi, Kenya; The International Center for Tropical Agriculture,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT),

Nairobi, Kenya

Daniel Olago and Opere Alfred

Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya, and

Tadesse Terefe Zeleke and Sintayehu W. Dejene

Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy,

Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and

The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Purpose –The purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the

Borena zone of Ethiopia and its effects on agricultureand livestock production. By examining these climate

variables in relation to global sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric pressure systems, the study

seeks to understandthe underlying mechanisms driving local climatevariability. Furthermore, it assesseshow

these climate variations impact crop yields, particularlywheat and livestock production, providing valuable

insights for developing effective adaptation strategies and policies to enhance food security and economic

stabilityin the region.

Design/methodology/approach –The design and methodology of this study involve a multifaceted

approach to analyzingseasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borenazone of Ethiopia. The research

uses advanced statistical techniques, including rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated

principal component analysis (RPCA), to identify and quantify signif‌icant patterns in seasonal rainfall,

temperature and drought indices over the period from 1981 to 2022. These methods are used to reveal the

spatiotemporal variationsand trends in climate variables. To understandthe causal mechanisms behind these

variations, the study correlates seasonal rainfall data with global SST and examines atmospheric pressure

systems and wind vectors. In addition, the impact of climate variability on agricultural and livestock

productionis assessed by linkingobserved climate patterns with changes in crop yields, particularlywheat and

© Sintayehu Alemayehu, Daniel Olago, Opere Alfred, Tadesse Terefe Zeleke and Sintayehu W.

Dejene. Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative

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IJCCSM

17,1

268

Received7 August 2024

Revised28 August 2024

Accepted14 S eptember 2024

InternationalJournal of Climate

ChangeStrategies and

Management

Vol.17 No. 1, 2025

pp. 268-290

EmeraldPublishing Limited

1756-8692

DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2024-0133

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

https://www.emerald.com/insight/1756-8692.htm

livestock productivity. This comprehensive approach integrates statistical analysis with environmental and

agriculturaldata to provide a detailed understandingof climate dynamics and their practical implications.

Findings –The f‌indings of this study reveal signif‌icant seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the

Borena zone of Ethiopia, characterized by notable patterns and trends in rainfall, temperature and drought

indices from 1981 to 2022. The analysis identif‌ied that over 84% of the annual rainfall occurs during the

March to May (MAM) and September to November (SON) seasons,with MAM contributing approximately

53% and SON over 31%, highlighting these as the primary rainfall periods. Signif‌icant spatiotemporal

variations were observed, with northwestern (35.4%), southern (34.9%) and northeastern (19.3%) are

dominant variability parts of the zone duringMAM season, similarly southeastern (48.7%), and northcentral

(37.8%) are dominant variability parts of the zone during SON season. Trends indicating that certain

subregions experiencemore pronounced changes in climate variables in bothseasons. Correlation with global

SSTand an examination of atmospheric pressure systems elucidatedthe mechanisms driving these variations,

with signif‌icant correlation with the southern and central part of Indian Ocean. This study also found that

f‌luctuations in climate variables signif‌icantly impact crop production, particularly wheat and livestock

productivity in the region, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate adverse effects on

agricultureand food security.

Research limitations/implications –The implications of this study highlight the need for robust

adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability. Detailed research on seasonal climate

patterns and the specif‌ic behaviors of livestock and crops is essential. Gaining a thorough understanding of

these dynamics is critical for developing resilient adaptation strategies tailored to the uniqueecological and

economic context of the Borana zone. Future researchshould focus on seasonal climate variations and their

implicationsto guide sustainable development and livelihood adjustmentsin the region.

Originality/value –This study offers signif‌icant originality and value by providing a detailed analysis of

seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia, using advanced statistical

techniques such as rotated EOF and RPCA. By integrating these methods with global SST data and

atmospheric pressure systems, the research deliversa nuanced understanding of how global climatic factors

inf‌luence local weather patterns. The study’s novel approach not only identif‌ies key trends and patterns in

climate variablesover an extensive historical period but also links these f‌indings to practicaloutcomes in crop

and livestock production.This connection is crucial for developingtargeted adaptation strategies and policies,

thereby offering actionable insightsfor enhancing agricultural practices and food security in the region. The

originality of this work lies in its comprehensive analysis and practical relevance, making it a valuable

contributionto both climate science and regional agriculturalplanning.

Keywords Drought, Rainfall, Temperature, Pastoral, Agropastoral, Climate variability,REOF,

Crop-livestock production

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

The agriculture sector is critical to the global economy, and weather and climate are major

factors inf‌luencing the productivity and prof‌itability of agropastoral systems. Weather-

related hazards pose considerable obstacles to agropastoral livelihoods (Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2019,2021;IPCC, 2019;2022;Paparrizos

et al., 2023). Borna zone is one of Ethiopia’s most vulnerable agropastoral areas to climate

change and variabilitythat threaten people’s lives and livelihoods.Like other regions climate

change and variability have created a bottleneck for livestock production, affecting

agropastoralists and pastoralists in the zone, as the availability and spatial distribution of

pasture and water are affected by rainfall (Napier and Solomon, 2011;Ayal et al., 2015;

Martin et al.,2016;Radeny et al., 2019;Guye et al., 2022). Climate variabilityand extremes

are manifested in increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall distribution(Nicholson, 2017).

Over the past decades, the Zone has experienceddiscernible shifts in rainfall and temperature

patterns, posing challenges to the agricultural sector and the pastoral communities (Zeleke

et al., 2017;Azemir et al., 2021;Filho et al., 2021). In the zone, the interplay between

climate variability and agropastoral productivity holds profound implications for the

International

Journal of Climate

Change Strategies

and Management

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