Lagarde: “Frontier Risks” Facing Global Economy

Long term trends will test IMF members in new ways

Global shifts in economic power; deeper financial integration

Flexibility, focus, and service are guideposts for future IMF

Even while grappling with a range of difficult transitions in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Lagarde pointed to the longer-term trends and “frontier risks” facing the IMF’s 188 countries.

“Over the next generation, the rate and reach of change is likely to be even greater than before. With that, the needs of our members will change. So too must the Fund.”

Longer-term trends and “frontier risks”

The Managing Director mapped out three milestones for the road ahead:

1) A more multipolar global economy. In the next decade the share of emerging and developing economies in global GDP will increase from about half to nearly two-thirds, Lagarde stated, setting the stage for a world where economic power will be far more dispersed across all regions.

The IMF must mirror this shift and be more representative, Lagarde said. The institution is already moving in this direction, Lagarde added, referring the 2010 governance reforms, which once implemented, would provide a platform on which to build further.

Representation is also about how the IMF engages with its members, Lagarde stressed.

“To be their trusted advisor, our analysis and advice must meet important tests: it must be of the highest quality; it must be objective; and it must be even-handed.”

2) A more financially integrated global economy. As emerging and developing countries grow and converge, their financial interconnections will become deeper and more complex.

Deeper integration will fuel growth, but it will not be without risk, Lagarde warned. “Experience teaches us a vital lesson: greater financial integration raises the probability and...