Financing adaptation in Pacific Island countries: prospects for the post-2012 climate change regime.

• Author: McGoldrick, Will

Abstract

This article explores the issues surrounding the development of the post-2012 international climate change regime with respect to financing for adaptation in Pacific Island countries. It is argued that adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change represents a realistic, rational and necessary policy option for Pacific islands, and that international law has an important, and thus far under-realised, role to play. The current negotiations to design a new international legal agreement on climate change will be crucial to securing long-term and reliable funding for adaptation measures in particularly vulnerable countries, including Pacific island countries.

Introduction

Climate change casts a shadow over the long-term social, economic and environmental wellbeing of Pacific island countries ('PICs'). (1) While mitigation, through deep cuts in global greenhouse gas ('GHG') emissions, offers the only long-term solution, PICs must also begin to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. Faced with the reality of rising sea levels, more extreme weather conditions and changing rainfall patterns, PICs have little choice but to implement a range of practical adaptation measured. Yet with limited financial resources of their own, PICs are critically dependent on international support.

The international climate change regime-as codified in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ('UNFCCC') (2) and its Kyoto Protocol (3)-obligates developed countries to provide funds to assist developing countries in adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. However, to data only limited support has been provided and it has become clear that the multilateral funding mechanisms established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol are inadequate.

With the impending expiry of the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period in 2012, the international community has launched negotiations to formulate a new accord on climate change. The most important outcome of these negotiations will be a new and more ambitious set of commitments for reducing GHG emissions. However, these negotiations also present an important opportunity to strengthen adaptation provisions. To meet the needs of the world's most vulnerable countries, including those in the Pacific, this must include significant progress on adaptation financing.

The central thesis put forward in this article is divided into three key parts. First, it is argued that adaptation represents a realistic, rational and necessary policy option for PICs in response to climate change. Secondly, it is argued that international law has an important, and thus far under-realised, role to play in supporting adaptation in PICs. Finally, it is argued that current negotiations to design a new international legal agreement must include strengthened provisions to fund adaptation measures in particularly vulnerable countries, including PICs.

1. Climate Change and Adaption in Pacific Island Countries

   The process of global climate change, including its causes and impacts, is well-documented. (4) Average temperatures across the Pacific Islands region have increased by 0.6-1.0[degree]C since 1910, while sea levels have risen by approximately 1.6 mm/yr over the last 50 years. (5) These trends have been accompanied by changed rainfall patterns and the increased frequency of extreme events, including flooding, droughts and storm surges. (6) According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ('IPCC'), further changes in the earth's climate are now inevitable. (7) Average temperatures in the Pacific Islands region are projected to increase by 0.99-0.58 meters in the same period. (8) Average annual rainfall is projected to vary by up to 10 per cent, while the IPCC also notes a 'strong possibility' of 'more persistent and devastating tropical cyclones' for the region. (9)

   While the exact nature and extent of climate change impacts will vary within and between PICs, it is possible to identify some common challenges. Sectors where impacts are expected to be most severe include: (i) water resources; (ii) coastal systems and resources; (iii) agriculture, fisheries and food security; (iv) biodiversity; (v) human settlements and well-being; (vi) economic, financial and socio-cultural impacts; and (vii) infrastructure and transport (10). Sea level rise is particularly alarming, and for low-lying countries such as Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands, it 'may, at some threshold, pose risks to their sovereignty or existence' (11). Indeed, in some areas the impacts of sea level rise are already being felt, with reports of coastal communities shifting to more viable locations (12).

   A. Adaptation Needs in PICs

   While PICs continue to push for stronger global mitigation efforts, adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change has emerged as a clear priority for the region (13). This is justified on several grounds. First, pacific islands are already experiencing the impacts of climate change, which can no longer be viewed as long-term threats, but rather as immediate risks that need to be dealt with. Secondly, the latest science indicates that further changes are now inevitable, which means adaptation is essential. Thirdly, there are legitimate doubts about whether global mitigation efforts will be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change. For particularly vulnerable countries such as PICs, adaptation is a practical necessity for dealing with current risks and a pragmatic policy option to plan for further impacts.

   As outlined in the Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change, the objective of adaptation in PICs is for 'people, their livelihoods and the environment [to be] resilient to the risks and impacts of climate change' (14). In a practical sense, this will be achieved through the implementation of adaptation measures aimed at reducing the vulnerability of highly exposed sectors and areas. Details of the various adaptation options for PICs are provided in national and regional reports, with a brief summary presented in Table 1 (15).

   Table 1: Examples of adaptation measurements in PICs (16) Vulnerable Sectors Climate Adaptation Options Change Risks Agriculture and Food - Reduced rainfall - Diversification of Security - Higher temperatures agricultural crops - Salt water -Selection of inundation drought/heat/salt - Increased tolerant species frequency of - Introduction of droughts new technologies to cope with climate stresses Water Resources - Reduced rainfall - Increased water - Saltwater Storage capacities intrusion - Water efficiency into measures groundwater Improved management of water catchments - Desalination facilities Human Health and -Cyclones - Mosquito control Well-being -Flooding measures -Changing - Disease outbreak rainfall Response plans patterns - Improved early warning systems - Disaster preparedbess programmes Coastal - Coastal - Relocation of Communities/ erosion Vulnerable Infrastructure - Storm surge communities/ - Cyclones infrastructure - Protection/ rehabilitation of natural defence systems (mangroves, coastal vegetation and coral reefs) - Artificial defence mechanisms (sea walls, wave breakers etc) - Design upgrades for new infrastructure - Management of non-climate stresses (sand mining, pollution over-fishing etc) As hay et al point out, while practical measures targeting specific climate risks are required, adaptation must also occur within the broader development context (17). If development helps to improve social and economic conditions, then ultimately this will help to enhance adaptive capacity. However, the failure to 'climate proof' development could exacerbate the risks of climate change, thus resulting in 'maladaptation' (18). A key challenge for PICs in the coming decades will be to ensure that adaptation objectives are integrated with national and sectoral development strategies. A failure to do so would not only undermine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, but would also put at risk national development objectives

   B. The Cost of Adaptation

   Despite the many uncertainties involved, several attempts have been made to estimate the global costs of adaptation in developing countries. The World Bank estimates that by 2050 annual adaptation costs in developing countries will reach US$10-40 billion. (19) Building on this estimate, and drawing from national and community level data, Oxfam International has raided the figure to at least US$50 billion a year. (20) Meanwhile, Watkins predicts that about US$86 billion will be needed each year by 2015. (21)

   In indication of the cost of adaptation in the Pacific region is provided by the national adaptation programmes of action ('NAPAs') prepared by Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The total cost of implementing urgent and immediate adaptation needs in these four countries is estimated to be approximately US$34.5 million. (22) Employing a similar approach to Oxfam International, the NAPA data can be scaled up to provide a figure for the whole region. (23) This is done using the estimated average costs per person, per dollar of GDP and per square kilometre of land in the four countries that have prepared NAPAs. (24) Using GDP as the scaling parameter, the total estimated cost of implementing urgent and immediate adaptation needs in all PICs is US$293.65 million. Based on population, the figure rises to US$304.79 million, and based on land area is even higher (US$530.26 million). (25) In other words, the estimated cost range of urgent and immediate adaptation measures in PICs is US$290.530 million. (26) These figures are expected to be much higher when longer-term adaptation needs are taken into consideration.

2. Adaption Provisions in the Climate Regime

   The key focus of the international climate regime is mitigation: reducing GHG emissions to avoid dangerous climate change. However, the regime also includes specific provisions for developed countries to provide...